Poulsbo and North Kitsap Real Estate
The Prowse Group at Sotheby's Int'l Realty
Here is a snapshot of the Silverdale Real Estate Market:
Listing inventory rose late last year is about 37% higher than a year ago. This makes Silverdale similar to Bremerton and very much unlike some other parts of the County. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is about 25% higher than a year ago, but this number has been falling after a strong start in January. The 3 month moving average closed sales price is $236,158 and is about 7% higher than a year ago.
This is an archive copy of our April newsletter.
From everything we can see, there is a great deal of public optimism about the housing market, and that’s not without justification. Nationally the Case Shiller Price index shows that home prices are up more than 8% from a year ago (Kitsap County’s median price is up 9%), and several economic experts have predicted price increases of another 6-9% in 2013. Still it’s worth keeping in mind that a lot of the market upswing is being driven by the government’s monetary policy, as discussed in this Wall Street Journal editorial. With near zero interest on short term treasuries and the government guaranteeing 90% of all mortgage loans, even private equity firms have jumped into the housing market, driving up prices in many areas. Although home prices have risen, the cost to borrowers has remained relatively constant since mortgage interest rates have fallen a corresponding amount. Eventually interest rates must rise. Since incomes have only risen 2% in the past year, that means that either homes will become far less affordable (and the market will stall) or a much more vibrant economic recovery must occur so that incomes can rise enough to compensate for the additional cost.
Of 789 total pending sales (all, not just last month), 40% are distressed properties (including 28% short sales) and 17% are new construction. That leaves just 43% of the buyers looking to purchase a resale home. As the number of pending sales appears to leap off the charts, note that many of these sales will take a long time to close. Also there are big differences between markets. We’ll post separately some additional information specific to local markets in Kitsap County.
The number of closed sales in Kitsap County in March rose about 25% from February and was about 14% higher than a year ago. This is a big jump. Pending sales rose about 18% compared to February and were about 8% higher than a year ago. In February, there were 188 closed sales and 348 pending sales. In March there were 234 closed sales and 411 pending sales. Shown below is a graph of month-by-month pending sales vs closed sales. Pending sales tend to lead closed sales in direction if not magnitude by about 2 months. Based on past trends, it appears that the number of closed sales will rise next month.
Residential Highlights
Kitsap County’s residential inventory in March (1199 listings) was about 6% higher than February and is about 8% lower than a year ago. Overall the market has a lower inventory than last year, but some local markets are way down (Bainbridge inventory down by 52%) and others like Bremerton are substantially higher (38% higher) than the inventory of a year ago. The overall result is that this year’s inventory is closing the gap on last year’s inventory.
Prices are rising…
Kitsap County’s monthly median closed sale price in March ($236,350) rose by 8% compared to February and is 9% higher than a year ago (this after falling last month). The more stable 3 month moving average (see graph below) of the median closed sale price ($230,181) is about 3% higher than February and 11% higher than than a year ago. Our median price graphs show a 3 month moving average of prices, which better shows trends and reduces the month-to-month fluctuations.
Seller expectations…
The March median list price was $259,950, about 2% higher than last month and 3% lower than a year ago. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 5.1 months, faster than the 6.0 month turnover rate in February and the 6.3 month rate of a year ago. Shown below are graphs of inventory and inventory turnover for Kitsap County in 2007-13.
We’ve made the point that the higher price ranges will be more difficult to reduce in inventory because today’s lending environment has greatly reduced the pool of qualified buyers. If your price is not best among comparable properties, the chance of sale is very small.
The number of pending sales in March was up 18% from a year ago and was up about 8% from February. The statistics for March pending sales varied for different parts of the County. Bremerton pending sales flattened out, while there was a jump in pending sales on Bainbridge Island. Most other areas had an improvement. Below is a graph showing the 3 month moving average of pending sales for different locations.
April ‘s APR is 3.663% on a 30-Year and 2.913% on a 15-Year, both conforming. Both have dropped a bit since last month. If you qualify for FHA, VA, or USDA loans , these programs have are attractive for low down payment buyers. The conventional and FHA loan limits are $475,000 for Kitsap County. A typical 30 year fixed jumbo APR (with total costs of the loan, not just the rate factored in) is 3.734% on one major bank web site. To check the daily rate you can contact your lender or preview web sites such as this one - http://bankrate.com/.
That’s our report for April! Please give me a call if I can help you or anyone you know with purchasing or selling a home.
Brenda Prowse
Here is a snapshot of the Silverdale Real Estate Market:
Listing inventory rose in the second half of 2012 and remains considerably higher than other parts of the County seeing record lows. Closed sales have started the new year fairly strong. Prices have fallen again in the new year after rising late last year. Still the current median is about 8% higher than it was a year ago.
This is an archive copy of our March newsletter.
The Kitsap real estate market has improved – there is no doubt. Yet while our market is improving, home buyers and sellers should keep in mind a few considerations when assessing their opportunities entering this market. First the housing market and US economy do not reflect the recent rise in stock market prices to record levels. Gains in the US economy and housing are modest, and the current levels of sales and current prices are in most cases still well below peak levels of 2007. Second, the winnowing of distressed properties from our market continues, and currently we see very low inventory and a high percentage of sales that are either distressed properties or new construction. Of 706 total pending sales (all, not just last month), 42% are distressed properties (including 32% short sales) and 18% are new construction. That leaves just 40% of the buyers looking to purchase a resale home. As the number of pending sales appears to leap off the charts, note that many of these sales will take a long time to close. Also there are big differences between markets. We’ll post separately some additional information specific to local markets in Kitsap County.
The number of closed sales in Kitsap County in February rose about 6% from January and was about 18% higher than a year ago. Pending sales rose about 3% compared to January and were about 14% higher than a year ago. In January, there were 178 closed sales and 339 pending sales. In February there were 188 closed sales and 348 pending sales. About 28% of the closed and pending sales are distressed properties. Shown below is a graph of month-by-month pending sales vs closed sales. Pending sales tend to lead closed sales in direction if not magnitude by about 2 months. Based on past trends, it appears that the number of closed sales will rise next month.
Residential Highlights
Kitsap County’s residential inventory in February (1127 listings) was about the same as January and is about 13% lower than a year ago. Overall the market has low inventory compared to the previous year, but some local markets are way down (Bainbridge inventory down by 54%) and others like Bremerton are substantially higher (34% higher) than the inventory of a year ago.
Prices are rising…
Kitsap County’s monthly median closed sale price in February ($219,444) fell by 7% compared to January and is 3% lower than a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average (see graph below) of the median closed sale price ($224,390) is about 5% lower than January and 7% higher than than a year ago. Our median price graphs show a 3 month moving average of prices, which better shows trends and reduces the month-to-month fluctuations.
Seller expectations…
The February median list price was $255,000, about the same as last month and 4% lower than a year ago. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 6.0 months, faster than the 6.3 month turnover rate in January and the 8.1 month rate of a year ago. Shown below are graphs of inventory and inventory turnover for Kitsap County in 2007-12.
We’ve made the point that the higher price ranges will be more difficult to reduce in inventory because today’s lending environment has greatly reduced the pool of qualified buyers. If your price is not best among comparable properties, the chance of sale is very small.
The number of pending sales in February was up 14% from a year ago and was up about 3% from January. The statistics for February pending sales varied for different parts of the County. The rise in Bremerton pending sales has continued a trend over the past several months. Below is a graph showing the 3 month moving average of pending sales for different locations.
March ‘s APR is 3.925% on a 30-Year and 3.182% on a 15-Year, both conforming. That’s up a couple tenths of a percent from last month. If you qualify for FHA, VA, or USDA loans , these programs have are attractive for low down payment buyers. The conventional and FHA loan limits are $475,000 for Kitsap County. A typical 30 year fixed jumbo APR (with total costs of the loan, not just the rate factored in) is 4.004% on one major bank web site. To check the daily rate you can contact your lender or preview web sites such as this one - http://bankrate.com/.
That’s our report for March! Please give me a call if I can help you or anyone you know with purchasing or selling a home.
Brenda Prowse
This is an archive copy of our February newsletter.
The number of closed sales in Kitsap County in January fell about 17% from December and was about 45% higher than a year ago. Pending sales rose about 33% compared to December and were about 23% higher than a year ago. In December, there were 214 closed sales and 254 pending sales. In January there were 178 closed sales and 339 pending sales. About 20-25% of the closed and pending sales are distressed properties. Shown below is a graph of month-by-month pending sales vs closed sales. Pending sales tend to lead closed sales in direction if not magnitude by about 2 months. Based on past trends, it appears that the number of closed sales will rise next month.
Residential Highlights
Kitsap County’s residential inventory in January (1119 listings) was about the same as December and is about 15% lower than a year ago. Bremerton inventory had fallen 28% in December compared to November. This month it recovered somewhat, rising 12.5%. Overall the market has low inventory compared to the previous year, but some local markets are way down (Bainbridge inventory down by 43%) and others like Bremerton are substantially above (25%) the inventory of a year ago.
Prices are rising…
Kitsap County’s monthly median closed sale price in January ($234,750) rose by 7% compared to December and is 33% higher than a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average (see graph below) of the median closed sale price ($235,058) is about 1% higher than December and 10 higher than than a year ago. Our median price graphs show a 3 month moving average of prices, which better shows trends and reduces the month-to-month fluctuations.
Seller expectations…
The January median list price was $255,000, about the same as last month and 2% lower than a year ago. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 6.3 months, slower than the 5.2 month turnover rate in December. Shown below are graphs of inventory and inventory turnover for Kitsap County in 2007-12.
We’ve made the point that the higher price ranges will be more difficult to reduce in inventory because today’s lending environment has greatly reduced the pool of qualified buyers. If your price is not best among comparable properties, the chance of sale is very small.
The number of pending sales in January was up 23% from a year ago but was up about 33% from December. The statistics for January pending sales varied for different parts of the County. The rise in Bremerton pending sales has continued a trend over the past several months. Below is a graph showing the 3 month moving average of pending sales for different locations.
February ‘s APR is 3.799% on a 30-Year and 3.056% on a 15-Year, both conforming. If you qualify for FHA, VA, or USDA loans , these programs have are attractive for low down payment buyers. The conventional and FHA loan limits are $475,000 for Kitsap County. A typical 30 year fixed jumbo APR (with total costs of the loan, not just the rate factored in) is 3.878% on one major bank web site. To check the daily rate you can contact your lender or preview web sites such as this one - http://bankrate.com/.
That’s our report for February! Please give me a call if I can help you or anyone you know with purchasing or selling a home.
Brenda Prowse
Silverdale voters have spoken and have strongly rejected the idea of incorporating. The next chance for Silverdale incorporation will be at least another 3 years, according to this Kitsap Sun article, before the measure can again appear on the ballot.
Silverdale voters too satisfied to incorporate? » Kitsap Sun.
This is an archive copy of our January newsletter.
No forecast for the new year can be complete without some discussion of the real estate market. Nationwide, the market is in much better shape entering 2013 than it has been in the past 4 or 5 years. The National Association of Realtors November pending sales index was reported to be up 9.8% from November 2011. According to the NAR, new home sales in November were up 15% from a year ago (still the 3rd lowest number of sales since 1963) and some say they may double over the next several years. That means more construction jobs and benefit to our national economy over the next several years. The Case-Shiller home price index rose 4.3% from a year ago. Home loan delinquencies, which in 2010 were more than 10% of all mortgages, have fallen to 5.9%, still about double the normal historical rate for our economy.
In the Kitsap County real estate market, by comparison, closed sales for the year were up about 14% from 2011 and easily the best we’ve seen since 2007. Pending sales in November were about 26% higher than a year ago. Our 3 month moving average of median closed sale prices at the end of November showed that home prices were up about 2% compared to a year ago. We can expect our market to continue to improve in 2013, though prices should be restrained by continued sales of distressed properties.
Still the Kitsap market is complex – of 556 total pending sales, about 38% are short sales, about 9% are bank owned, and about 20% are new construction. Starting the new year, only 1 in 3 closed sales is non distressed and not new construction. That means that homeowners planning to sell must prepare for competition. Only the BEST PRICED homes in the BEST CONDITION will sell. RealtyTrac shows that the number of homeowners in Kitsap County in default or foreclosure has risen by 33% since August of 2012, so distressed property sales will continue to compete with residential resales in the coming year. Just looking at Poulsbo last year, in the price range where most sales occur – $250-350,000, 44% of the sales were new construction. Buyers not willing to wait for the delays in a short sale or not willing to take on the risk of purchasing a bank owned property are in many cases opting to purchase well priced new construction. Home sellers take note!
A final note, there are big differences between local markets in our County, and winners and losers appear to reflect the underlying employment opportunities. Bremerton sales last year were low, prices oscillated, and inventory rose. Bainbridge sales in 2012 were the strongest since 2007, prices have risen and inventory is very low. Employment opportunities in Seattle appear to be driving Bainbridge and helping the Poulsbo and North Kitsap markets as well. Improving economic conditions in Bremerton and Central Kitsap could make a big difference in the County real estate market for 2013.
The number of closed sales in Kitsap County in December fell about 5% from November and was about 10% higher than a year ago. Pending sales fell about 12% compared to November and were about 32% higher than a year ago. In November, there were 224 closed sales and 288 pending sales. In December there were 214 closed sales and 254 pending sales. About 20-25% of the closed and pending sales are distressed properties. Shown below is a graph of month-by-month pending sales vs closed sales. Pending sales tend to lead closed sales in direction if not magnitude by about 2 months. Based on past trends, it appears that the number of closed sales will fall next month.
Residential Highlights
Kitsap County’s residential inventory in December (1122 listings) fell 17% from November and is about 14% lower than a year ago. This was a big drop at the end of the year. Bremerton inventory fell by 28% compared to November. We expect this inventory to come back on the market in the new year.
Prices are steady…
Kitsap County’s monthly median closed sale price in December ($218,975) fell by 13% compared to November and is 5% lower than a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average (see graph below) of the median closed sale price ($231,808) is about 3% lower than November and 1% lower than than a year ago. Prices and sales dip at year end but rebound in the new year. The end of the year price lower than the previous year is not really reflective of most of our markets. We expect year-over-year prices will show a gain in the coming months. Our median price graphs show a 3 month moving average of prices, which better shows trends and reduces the month-to-month fluctuations.
Seller expectations…
The December median list price was $256,703, about the same as last month and 3% lower than a year ago. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 5.2 months, faster than the 6 month turnover rate in November. Shown below are graphs of inventory and inventory turnover for Kitsap County in 2007-12.
We’ve made the point that the higher price ranges will be more difficult to reduce in inventory because today’s lending environment has greatly reduced the pool of qualified buyers. If your price is not best among comparable properties, the chance of sale is very small.
The number of pending sales in December was up 32% from a year ago but was down about 12% from November. The statistics for December pending sales varied for different parts of the County. The sharp rise in Bremerton pending sales was different than elsewhere in the County and suggests that investors see this market at the bottom and are making purchases before prices rise in the coming year. Below is a graph showing the 3 month moving average of pending sales for different locations.
January ‘s APR is 3.799% on a 30-Year and 3.182% on a 15-Year, both conforming. If you qualify for FHA, VA, or USDA loans , these programs have are attractive for low down payment buyers. The conventional and FHA loan limits are $475,000 for Kitsap County. A typical 30 year fixed jumbo APR (with total costs of the loan, not just the rate factored in) is 4.13% on one major bank web site. To check the daily rate you can contact your lender or preview web sites such as this one - http://bankrate.com/.
That’s our report for January! Please give me a call if I can help you or anyone you know with purchasing or selling a home.
Brenda Prowse
Forecast for 2013 Kitsap real estate from Brenda Prowse, as published on page 7 of North Kitsap Herald – see link below.
No forecast for the new year can be complete without some discussion of the real estate market. Nationwide, the market is in much better shape entering 2013 than it has been in the past 4 or 5 years. The National Association of Realtors November pending sales index was reported to be up 9.8% from November 2011. According to the NAR, new home sales in November were up 15% from a year ago (still the 3rd lowest number of sales since 1963) and some say they may double over the next several years. That means more construction jobs and benefit to our national economy over the next several years. The Case-Shiller home price index rose 4.3% from a year ago. Home loan delinquencies, which in 2010 were more than 10% of all mortgages, have fallen to 5.9%, still about double the normal historical rate for our economy.In the Kitsap County real estate market, by comparison, closed sales for the year were up about 14% from 2011 and easily the best we’ve seen since 2007. Pending sales in November were about 26% higher than a year ago. Our 3 month moving average of median closed sale prices at the end of November showed that home prices were up about 2% compared to a year ago. We can expect our market to continue to improve in 2013, though prices should be restrained by continued sales of distressed properties.Still the Kitsap market is complex – of 556 total pending sales, about 38% are short sales, about 9% are bank owned, and about 20% are new construction. Starting the new year, only 1 in 3 closed sales is non distressed and not new construction. That means that homeowners planning to sell must prepare for competition. Only the BEST PRICED homes in the BEST CONDITION will sell. RealtyTrac shows that the number of homeowners in Kitsap County in default or foreclosure has risen by 33% since August of 2012, so distressed property sales will continue to compete with residential resales in the coming year. Just looking at Poulsbo last year, in the price range where most sales occur – $250-350,000, 44% of the sales were new construction. Buyers not willing to wait for the delays in a short sale or not willing to take on the risk of purchasing a bank owned property are in many cases opting to purchase well priced new construction. Home sellers take note!A final note, there are big differences between local markets in our County, and winners and losers appear to reflect the underlying employment opportunities. Bremerton sales last year were low, prices oscillated, and inventory rose. Bainbridge sales in 2012 were the strongest since 2007, prices have risen and inventory is very low. Employment opportunities in Seattle appear to be driving Bainbridge and helping the Poulsbo and North Kitsap markets as well. Improving economic conditions in Bremerton and Central Kitsap could make a big difference in the County real estate market for 2013.
Calculated Risk thinks the answer is yes. He notes that this is a question of whether prices will rise, since rising prices will encourage more new construction and more home sellers to enter the market. In Kitsap County it seems that inventory is already rising in the weaker markets, Bremerton, Silverdale, and perhaps North Kitsap, while the stronger markets still have inventory at rock bottom.
Calculated Risk: Question #8 for 2013: Will Housing inventory bottom in 2013?.
Kitsap County foreclosure activity fell nearly 60% since the beginning of 2011, but since August 2012 the number of foreclosures has risen again by about 25% overall. Here is a foreclosure heat map showing recent activity in various parts of the County. Bank owned plus short sales make up about 45% of the pending sales and about 20% of the active listings in our Kitsap market.
Brenda Prowse has been a full time real estate broker in Poulsbo since 1979 and is one of Kitsap County's top selling agents. From 2008 - 2012 she was named "Best Realtor in North Kitsap" in the annual survey of the North Kitsap Herald. She joined Realogics Sotheby's International Realty in 2012.