Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. July's inventory of homes for sale (1944) rose 3.5% from June and is 6% larger than a year ago.  This rise in inventory did not occur last year and may indicate that some sellers who have been waiting to sell are now coming back into the market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 9.5 months, a big slowdown from June’s 7.1 months. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price. In July, there was only 1 sale among 152 Kitsap County properties priced greater than $800k, so turnover in the higher price ranges was very slow. July's median price ($264,250) rose about 11% compared to June and was also about 5% higher than a year ago.  This was primarily the result of a change in the price distribution of homes  sold, rather than an across the board increase in home prices. With expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, the number of sales of lower priced properties fell by a large percentage. Sales of mid priced homes was affected less, so the median (middle) price of the homes sold moved higher. The number of pending sales in July was down 20% compared to a year ago, but was up 15% compared to last month. You may recall that pending sales fell nearly 50% in May and have been rising again the past 2 months.  The links to regional market trends below will show both tables and graphs that further enhance the data reported. 

See Kitsap County graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a July median price of $529,500, about 19% lower than in June. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale price fell about 1.5% from last month to $547,333 and is 19% lower than it was a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 1% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of closed sales is 54% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 3% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bainbridge pending sales in July rose 29% from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (268) rose 3% from June and is up 6% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 12.2 months, slower then the 8.1 months in June and the 10.5 months of a year ago. Bainbridge Island is a buyer’s market.

See tables and graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $167,450 at the end of July, about 1% less than a year ago and about 1% less than last month. The more stable 3 month moving average median price ($168,949) was about 6% less than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 1% higher than it was a year ago.  Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is 12% lower than a year ago and 15% lower than last month. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 3% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is down 44% from last year. With expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, pending sales in Bremerton have fallen sharply. The number of Bremerton active listings (186) is 2% higher than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 13.3 months (much slower than the 6.5 month turnover last month and 4.9 month turnover a year ago). The Bremerton market is slowing down and is a buyer’s market.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market  

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $208,725 at the end of July, 54% lower than a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average ($253,480) of closed sale prices is down 28% compared to a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 1% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average of Kingston closed sales rose 39% from a year ago, while the number of pending sales is unchanged from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 3% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (73) is up 7% from a year ago and down 16% from last month. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 12.1 months (slower than the 9.7  month turnover reported last month and the 8.5 month turnover of a year ago). Kingston is still a buyer's market.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market 

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The July median sales price for Poulsbo was $317,750, up about 12% from a year ago and down about 11 % from last month. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $322,446, about 4% higher than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 1% higher than it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 2% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 3% Countywide from a year ago.  Poulsbo’s 3 month moving average of pending sales fell 41% from a year ago. The Poulsbo listing inventory (103) is 11% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 4.7 months, faster than the 6.4 months reported last month and better than most other areas in the County. Poulsbo is still a buyer’s market.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a July median price of about $383,500, 25% higher than a year ago. This rise is the result of a change in the price distribution of  homes sold - fewer low priced sales and more mid to high priced sales. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale price was $301,150, about 18% higher than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 1% higher than it was a year ago.   The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was down 30% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 3% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average of Silverdale pending sales in July fell 52% from a year ago. The number of active listings in Silverdale (109) is down 2% from last month and 35% higher than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 9.1 months,  slower than the 8.5 month turnover reported last month. Silverdale is still a buyer's market.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. May's inventory of homes for sale (1846) rose 5% from April and is 4% greater than a year ago.  This rise in inventory did not occur last year and may indicate that some sellers who have been waiting to sell are now coming back into the market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 7.3 months, the same as in April. Since May pending sales have fallen 45%, it looks like turnover will slow in coming months. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with some higher price ranges having a turnover greater than 40 months. April's median price ($243,498) rose about 6% compared to April and was about 1% higher than a year ago.  The number of pending sales in May was down 32% compared to a year ago, and regional pending sales fell in several areas.  The links to regional market trends below will show both tables and graphs that further enhance the data reported below.  See Kitsap County graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a May median price of $457,500, about 18% lower than in April. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale price fell 12% from last month to $511,333 and is 19% lower than it was a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of closed sales is 63% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bainbridge pending sales in May rose 105% from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (210) is down 9% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.9 months, better than last month and much better than a year ago. Bainbridge Island is a buyer’s market.

See tables and graphs and tables at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $169,898 at the end of May, about 3% less than a year ago and about the same as last month. The more stable 3 month moving average median price was 7% higher than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago.  Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is 56% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is up 13% from last year. Recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (168) is 3% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.6 months (a small improvement from the 6.1 month turnover last month and better than the 10.8 month turnover a year ago). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyer’s market.

See tables and graphs and tables at http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market  

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $312,715 at the end of May, 4% lower than a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is down 32% compared to a year ago - this has been affected by the very low median price of last month.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales rose 350% from a year ago, while the number of pending sales is up 75% from a year ago. Recall again that our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (77) is up 24% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7.7 months (worse than the 6.4  month turnover reported last month, but much better than a year ago). Kingston is still a buyer's market.

See tables and graphs and tables at http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market  

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The May median sales price for Poulsbo was $290,087, down about 18% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $307,362, about 6% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 56% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago.  Poulsbo’s 3 month moving average of pending sales fell 18% from a year ago. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (103) is 15% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.7 months, improved from the 8.2 months reported last month. Poulsbo is still a buyer’s market.

See tables and graphs and tables at http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a May median price of about $245,000, 12% lower than a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale price was $266,333, about 1% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was up 17% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago.  The number of Silverdale pending sales in May is up 5% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (98) is 14% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7 months,  worse than the 5.9 month turnover reported last month. Silverdale is still a buyer's market.

See tables and graphs and tables at http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. Kitsap County's residential inventory in January (1437 listings) is about 5% higher than December and down about 20% from a year ago. This is the first rise in the number of listings in some time, and may be evidence that we'll see a more typical seasonal listing curve, with then number of properties for sale rising into mid summer and falling off as the we get later into the year. We may at least see some of the shadow inventory become active again as foreclosures increase and sellers come back to test the market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 8.35 months, slower than December's 6.0 months.  Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with an inventory turnover as low as 6.5 months for the lower price ranges and four or more times that long for homes priced above $400,000. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales Countywide is up 57% compared to a year ago, up from plus 38% last month, but temper this with knowing that we were at the very bottom of our market a year ago. Closed sales were down 11% compared with December 2009. January's closed sale median price ($239,700) was almost the same as December, and is less than 1% higher than a year ago.  The number of pending sales in January was up 5% compared to a year ago.  Regional pending sales have tailed off after peaking in October 2009.  The links to regional market trends below will show both tables and graphs that further enhance the data reported below.

See Kitsap County graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a January median price of $553,500, about 10% higher than in December. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale price rose 4% from last month to $515,500 and is 4% higher than it was a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about 2% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of closed sales is 20% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of pending sales in December rose 31% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 57% Countywide from a year ago (when sales were very weak). The number of active listings on Bainbridge (166) is down 14% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 10.3 months, slower than the 7 month turnover rate of last month. Bainbridge Island is a buyers market.

See tables and graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market.

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $129,300 at the end of January, about 31% lower than a year ago and down 16% from last month. The more stable 3 month moving average was 22% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about 24% less than it was a year ago. Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is up 10% from a year ago, but for January, there were only 10 closed sales. This will make the inventory turnover (see below) look large. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 57% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is up 9% from last year. Recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (150) is 12% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 15 months (way slower than the 5.1 last month and from 10 months a year ago). While prices are way down the rate of sales fell off as well. We'll look to see if this trend continues or is just an isolated case last month. The Bremerton market is probably still a buyers market.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market  

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $299,000 at the end of January, 36% higher than a year ago. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations when one or two high priced homes sell.  The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is up 41% compared to a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about 2% lower than it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales rose 167% from a year ago, while the number of pending sales is unchanged from a year ago. Recall again that sales at the end of last year were very few and far between and that our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 57% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (59) is down 13% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 14.8 months (a sharp slowdown from the 4.7 months last month). Kingston is still a buyer's market.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market  

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The January median sales price for Poulsbo was $287,500, down about 6% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $277,709, about 17% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 2% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 67% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 57% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average of pending sales was up 44% in Poulsbo. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (80) is 46% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.2 months, a bit worse than the 5.9 months reported last month - but still very good. Poulsbo is probably still a buyers market because of the shadow inventory of homes pulled off the market in the past year without selling.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a January median price of about $230,000. This median is down 4% percent from a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale prince in December of $259,667was up about 2.5% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 2% lower than it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was 57% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 57% Countywide from a year ago.  The number of Silverdale pending sales in January is up 10% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (65) is 14% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7.2 months, slower than the 5.2 months last month. Silverdale is probably still a buyer's market because of the shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market that will deter prices from rising.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

Recent news from the National Association of Realtors is that December home sales were down 16% nationally compared to November, yet 15% higher than December 2008. You'll recall that November ended the initial first time homebuyer tax credit, so sales then were inflated by buyers rushing to meet the deadline. Even though the tax credit has been renewed and expanded, there isn't the same urgency on the part of buyers. With so many Americans having lost equity in their homes (we calculated 8949 homeowners underwater in Kitsap County - but many more have lost a sizable amount of equity), few are in a position to benefit from the new tax credit for move up buyers.

There is still a great deal of uncertainty in our economy, and there will be more trials over the next year. Congress (through the Stimulus bill), Treasury and the Federal Reserve (though a near zero Federal Funds target rate and the purchase of debt and mortgage backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) have pumped a huge amount of money (more than $200 billion by Treasury and about $1.25 trillion by the Fed) into our economy. As demand for goods and services increases, there will be a threat of inflation (too many dollars chasing too few goods). One uncertainty is whether the Federal Reserve will have the resolve to raise their target rate in spite of political pressure to keep rates low. Related to this, the Treasury has stopped purchasing mortgage backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the Federal Reserve has announced it will stop purchasing these securities at the end of March. Another uncertainty is how much interest rates will rise to attract private investors back into this market. While some experts expect mortgage rates to rise only a few tenths of a percent, others have predicted that rates will be 6% by year end. These uncertainties are playing a role in the doubts currently circulating about whether or not to confirm the nomination of Ben Bernanke to continue as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

There is also uncertainty about what will be done to alleviate the perception that some of our financial institutions are too big to fail. Despite being saved by the the taxpayers late last year, many of these institutions have profited and grown this year, now making the influence of the largest bank (actually bank holding companies) considerably greater than it was when markets failed in fall 2008. The administration has recently proposed curbs on the lending and investing activities of these big banks, and while it might appear that this was a reaction to the Democrats recent loss of a Senate seat in Massachusetts, the program, at least according to one source, has been in preparation and review for many months. Just a case of bad timing.

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. December's inventory of homes for sale fell by 25% from a year ago and was 10% lower than in November. The listing inventory fell sharply late last year and has never recovered this year, implying that there is a considerable shadow inventory of homes with sellers waiting for a better market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 6.0 months, somewhat better than November's 6.1 months, and considerably better that we've seen for the past year and a half. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with an inventory turnover as low as 4 months for the lower price ranges and as much as 25 months turnover for homes priced above $800,000. December's closed sale median price ($239,950) was about the same as in November and was 8% higher than a year ago (median price dipped very low in December 2008 before rebounding somewhat to near its current level).  The number of pending sales in December was up 38% from a year ago (recall that December 2008 was a very bad month for our economy) even though pending sales have fallen steeply the past 2 months (as the first time homebuyer tax credit deadline passed). Regional pending sales have tailed off after peaking in October.  The links to regional market trends below will show both tables and graphs that further enhance the data reported below.

See Kitsap County graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for an December median price of $505,000, about 3% higher than in November. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale price fell 1% from last month to $495,000 and is 5% lower than it was a year ago. Sales at the top of the market, while still pretty slow, did improve somewhat compared to previous months. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago. Note that prices tailed off at the end of last year so this parity is not unexpected. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of  closed sales is 50% higher than a year ago. Recall that sales were very weak at the end of 2008 and the number of closed sales at the end of last year was improved. The 3 month moving average number of pending sales in December rose 53% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (162) is down 16% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7 months, improved from the 11.7 month turnover rate of last month. Bainbridge Island is a buyers market.

See tables and graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market .

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $153,150 at the end of December, about 2% higher than a year ago and down 4% from last month. The more stable 3 month moving average was 22% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago. Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is up 13% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is up 13% from last year. Recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (138) is 25% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.1 months (better than the 6.1 last month and from 8.7 months a year ago). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyers market because of shadow inventory that has been pulled off unsold.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market  

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $299,000 at the end of December, 94% higher than a year ago - December 2008 was a terrible month for Kingston home sales. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations when one or two high priced homes sell.  The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is up 13% compared to a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales rose 175% from a year ago, while the number of pending sales is 100% higher than a year ago. Recall again that December 2008 had very low sales and that our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (62) is down 21% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 4.8 months (better than the 8.7 months last month, not to mention the 78 month turnover of last year). Our guess is that Kingston is still a buyer's market because of the shadow inventory.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market  

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The December median sales price for Poulsbo was $254,250, down about 30% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $282,709, about 18% lower than in December 2008. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 50% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago.  December pending sales were up 50% in Poulsbo. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (98) is 36% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.9 months, somewhat worse than the 4.2 months reported last month - but still very good. Poulsbo is probably still a buyers market because of the shadow inventory of homes pulled off the market in the past year without selling, but looks like it has improved recently.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a December median price of about $274,000. This median is down 4% percent from a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale prince in December of $275,417 was up about 5% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was 8% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago.  The number of Silverdale pending sales in December is up 44% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (62) is 25% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.2 months, better than the 5.7 months last month. Silverdale is looking now like a seller's market, but there appears to be a large shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market that will deter prices from rising.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

The headlines today are about November's 7.4% rise in the number of closed home sales nationally. This spike in sales was fueled by the expiring 1st time homebuyer tax credit - 51% of the sales were to first time buyers. However, we want to talk about the inventory of homes for sale. The National Association of Realtors reported that the national inventory of homes for sale is at a 44 month low. The inventory of homes for sale in Kitsap County has been very low this year compared to the last two years, as shown in this graph.

You'll see in the local area write-ups below that although the inventory turnover has fallen to 6 months or less in some areas, we continue to predict that we have a buyer's market because of shadow inventory. Recently an article in Housing Wire cited a report from First American Core Logic stating that nationally there are now 1.7 million homes in the shadow market as of September 2009, up from 1.1 million a year ago (about a 55% increase).

How many homes are there in the Kitsap County shadow market? The shadow market consists of bank owned properties not yet on the market, foreclosures in process and seriously delinquent loans, new high rise condos (not significant in our area), and homeowners waiting for a better market. If we make the assumption that the shadow market consists entirely of underwater or near underwater homeowners, we can come up with an approximate number for our county. According to Census information, there are 100,924 total housing units in Kitsap County, with about 63,029 owner occupied units. Of these, 47,105 have mortgages. We choose only to look at owner occupied units because the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) only applies to owner occupied units, and the mortgage modifications of this program are delaying the majority of foreclosures.

The number of homeowners with negative or nearly negative equity varies greatly by state, as shown in this article in Calculated Risk. In Washington State, the percentage of homeowners underwater or nearly underwater is about 19%, about in the middle nationally. So in Kitsap County there might be 8,949 owner occupied units underwater or nearly (within 5%) underwater. If nationally there are 10.7 million homes with negative equity plus 2.3 million with near negative equity (total 13 million), and the shadow inventory is 1.7 million, and the greatest number in the shadow inventory come from those with negative equity, we can approximate the shadow inventory in Kitsap County by using the ratio of national shadow inventory to national negative equity - about 13%. That would mean about 1,092 Kitsap homes could be in the shadow inventory. This calculation is inexact, but probably a reasonable order of magnitude.

Since there are currently only about 1500 homes listed for sale in Kitsap County, flooding our market with a thousand more units of shadow inventory might mean that there will be another dip in the housing market, prices again falling as a small pool of buyers purchase only the best values available. Some groups, like Radar Logic in a report on Housing Wire, assert that the banks are now controlling the rate at which foreclosures now come on the market so that there won't be a flood of new foreclosure inventory if a large number of loan modifications don't convert to permanent.

"Thanks to federal bailout money and a general improvement in their financial health, banks have been relieved of the urgent need to liquidate their assets. As a result, lenders and government entities like Fannie Mae and the FDIC have been able to curtail sales to raise prices and avoid recording losses on properties", according to the report.

Meanwhile an analysis from Deutsche Bank states that nationally prices will drop another 10-12% in the coming year as the governments policy actions will be no match for high unemployment, tight credit, and rising negative equity. Just to add a little confusion, there are conflicting reports about whether current prices are going up or down. The Case Shiller Index, which is yet to be released, has shown a modest rise recently. A Housing Wire article states that Global Insight shows a .2% rise in prices over the 3rd quarter, but warns against extrapolating on the trend. The same article noted that FHFA's index is rising. Now Calculated Risk has reported that October home prices are falling based on First American Core Logic's Loan Performance House Price Index.

Stay tuned - there are lots of conflicting statements and signals in our market right now.

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. September's inventory of homes for sale fell by 25% from a year ago and was 3% lower than in August. The listing inventory fell sharply late last year and has never recovered this year, implying that there is a considerable shadow inventory of homes with sellers waiting for a better market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 6.9 months, somewhat better than August's 7.4 months, and considerably better that we've seen for the past year and a half. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with an inventory turnover as low as 3 months for the lower price ranges and 120 months turnover for homes priced above $900,000. September's closed sale median price ($250,000) was up 2% from August and was down 5% percent compared to a year ago.  The number of pending sales in September was up 8% from a year ago and just about the same as in August. The links to regional market trends below will show both tables and graphs that further enhance the data reported below.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for an September median price of $592,000, about 11% lower than in August. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale price fell 17% from last month to $580,417 and is 2% lower than it was a year ago (recall that the median price can be misleading when the price distribution of sales is changing). Sales at the top of the market lagged - there was only 1 closed sale above $900k in Kitsap County last month. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year. Note that prices tailed off at the end of last year so we expect this gap to close in the coming months. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of  closed sales is 15% higher than a year ago - a testament to last months jump in sales. The 3 month moving average number of pending sales in September rose 30% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 14% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (242) is down 9% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 9.3 months, a jump improvement from the 13.9 month turnover rate of last month . Bainbridge Island is a buyers market.

See tables and graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market_

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $159,000 at the end of September, about 18% lower than a year ago and down 4% from last month. The more stable 3 month moving average was 13% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year.  Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is up 11% from a year ago. The number of closed sales is up 14% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is up 46% from last year, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (178) is 31% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.1 months (better than the 8.2 last month but definitely improved from 14.1 months a year ago). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyers market because of shadow inventory that has been pulled off unsold.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market 

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $309,500 at the end of September, 26% lower than a year ago. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations when one or two high priced homes sell.  The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is down 22% compared to a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year.  The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales fell 14% from a year ago, while the number of pending sales is 50% higher than a year ago. Recall our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The number of closed sales is up 14% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (59) is down 39% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 9.8 months (worse than the 13.6 months last month). Sales in North Kitsap still seem to be slower than farther south in the County. Kingston is a buyer's market.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The September median sales price for Poulsbo was $301,000, down about 8% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $291,987, about 11% lower than in September 2008. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 5% from a year ago. The number of closed sales is up 14% Countywide from a year ago.  September pending sales were down 7% in Poulsbo. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (98) is 36% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.2 months, somewhat worse than the 4.4 months reported last month - but still very good. Poulsbo is probably still a buyers market because of the shadow inventory of homes pulled off the market in the past year without selling, but looks like it has improved recently.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a September median price of about $275,000. This median is down 8% percent from a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale prince in September of $284,333 was down about 4% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is down 8% compared to a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was 67% higher than a year ago, compared to a rise in closed sales of 14% for the County as a whole. The number of Silverdale pending sales in September is up 7% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (93) is 23% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.5 months, same as last month and very good compared to many areas. Silverdale is looking now like a seller’s market, but there appears to be a large shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market that will deter prices from rising.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. August's inventory of homes for sale fell by 27% from a year ago and was 2% lower than in July. The listing inventory fell sharply late last year and has never recovered this year, implying that there is a considerable shadow inventory of homes with sellers waiting for a better market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 7.4 months, slightly worse than July's 7.1 months, but still considerably better that we've seen for the past year and a half. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with an inventory turnover as low as 3 months for the lower price ranges and 3 to 10 times longer turnover for homes priced above $400,000. August's closed sale median price ($245,000) was down 3% from July and was down 13% percent compared to a year ago.  The number of pending sales in August was up 24% from a year ago and just about the same as in July. The links to regional market trends below will show both tables and graphs that further enhance the data reported below.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for an August median price of $592,000, about 5% lower than in July. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale price rose 3% from last month to $695,400 and is 16% higher than it was a year ago (because of an exceptionally high median 2 months ago - recall that the median price can be misleading when the price distribution of sales is changing). The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 9% over the past year. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of  closed sales is 10% lower than a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of pending sales in August rose 21% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 12% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (251) is down 14% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 13.9 months, worse than the 10.5 month turnover rate of last month . Bainbridge Island is a buyers market.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market_.

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $165,000 at the end of August, about 10% lower than a year ago and down 3% from last month. The more stable 3 month moving average was 9% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 9% over the past year.  Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is up 11% from a year ago (compared to a Countywide rise of 12%). The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is up 46% from last year, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (178) is 31% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 8.2 months (significantly worse than the 4.9 last month but definitely improved from 13.6 months a year ago). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyers market because of shadow inventory that has been pulled off unsold.

http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market  

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $242,000 at the end of August, 51% lower than a year ago. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations when one or two high priced homes sell.  The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is down 18% compared to a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 9% over the past year.  The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales is the same as a year ago, while the number of pending sales is 25% higher than a year ago. Recall our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The number of closed sales is up 12% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (68) is down 35% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 13.6 months (worse than the 8.5 months last month). Sales in North Kitsap still seem to be slower than farther south in the County. Kingston is a buyer's market.

http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market  

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The August median sales price for Poulsbo was $282,960, down about 17% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $309,320, about 8% lower than in August 2008. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 9% over the past year. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 6% from a year ago. The number of closed sales is up 12% Countywide from a year ago.  August pending sales were down 19% in Poulsbo. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (111) is 35% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 4.4 months, better than the 6.4 months reported last month. Poulsbo is probably still a buyers market because of the shadow inventory of homes pulled off the market in the past year without selling, but it looks like it has improved recently.

http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a August median price of about $270,000. This median is down 2% percent from a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale prince in August of $308,500 was up about 9.4% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is down 9% compared to a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was 36% higher than a year ago, compared to a rise in closed sales of 12% for the County as a whole. The number of Silverdale pending sales in August is up 33% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (88) is 34% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.5 months, worse than last month's rate of 3 months but still very good compared to many areas. Silverdale is looking now like a seller's market, but there appears to be a large shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market that will deter prices from rising.

http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. July's inventory of homes for sale fell by 29% from a year ago and was slightly lower than in June. This is unusual and implies that some sellers may have decided to wait until they see a better market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 7.1 months, down from June's 8.5 months, and the best turnover we've seen since 2007. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with an inventory turnover under 6 months for homes under $400,000 and 3 to 10 times longer turnover for homes priced above $400,000. July's closed sale median price ($245,000) was up 2% from June and was down 8% percent compared to a year ago.  The number of pending sales in July was up 56% from a year ago and up 12% compared to June.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a month end median price of $624,250 at the end of July, down 28% from June. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale prices ($674,733) rose 4.1% from last month and is 16% higher than it was a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of  closed sales is 6% higher than a year ago. The number of pending sales in July rose 8% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 8% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (250) is down 17% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 10.5 months, improved from the 19.6 month turnover rate of last month . Bainbridge Island is a buyers market.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market_ .

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $169,900 at the end of July, about 12% lower than a year ago and down 12% from last month. The more stable 3 month moving average was 6% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year.  Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is up 12% from a year ago (compared to a Countywide rise of 10%). The number of month end Bremerton pending sales is up 39% from last year, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (183) rose 17% from last month and is 30% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 4.9 months (improved from 5.4 last month). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyers market because of shadow inventory that has been pulled off unsold, but the lower price ranges are definitely selling very well now.

http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market  

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $450,000 at the end of July, 22% higher than a year ago. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations when one or two high priced homes sell.  The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is up 7% compared to a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year.  The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales is 14% lower than a year ago, while the number of pending sales is 13% higher than a year ago. Recall our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The number of closed sales is up 10% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (68) is down 33% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 8.5 months (down from 10 months last month). Sales in North Kitsap still seem to be slower than farther south in the County. Kingston is a buyer's market.

http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market  

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The July median sales price for Poulsbo was $282,960, down about 17% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $309,320, about 8% lower than in July 2008. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 6% from a year ago. The number of closed sales is up 10% Countywide from a year ago.  July pending sales were down 19% in Poulsbo. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (116) is 30% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.4 months, a bit slower than the 5.3 months reported last month. Poulsbo is probably still a buyers market because of the shadow inventory of homes pulled off the market in the past year without selling, but looks like it has improved recently.

http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a July median price of about $308,000. This median is down 2% percent from a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale prince in July of $308,500 was up about 5% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is down 8% compared to a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was 19% higher than a year ago, compared to a rise in closed sales of 10% for the County as a whole. The number of Silverdale pending sales in July is up 120% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (81) is 43% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 3 months, improved from last month's rate of 4.9 months. Silverdale is looking now like a seller’s market, but there appears to be a large shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market that will deter prices from rising.

http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market