The economy in the last month of spring has been pretty volatile, with several factors working against each other and no one able to pick the winners and losers. The latest Pacific Northwest report from economist William Conerly at Conerly Consulting shows low to moderate gains in GDP, weak improvements in employment, a steady rise in discretionary spending, strong gains in industrial sales, and improved corporate profits.  Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking before the House Budget Committee last week, said technically we’ll be in recovery, but with near double digit unemployment there will still be a lot of financial stress. He also reminded the committee that the US Budget is on a path of unsustainable debt, while at the same time not giving Representatives cover by suggesting spending cuts or tax increases that might make things better.

The Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard released its 2010 State of the Nation’s Housing Report. The report analyzes the impact of high unemployment, reduction in median income since 2000, slowing growth in the number of households, rising numbers of minorities in younger generations, falling home prices, etc., on the national real estate market. It spans a number of topics. With falling prices, total home equity has returned to the 1985 level, back when there were far fewer homes. Total mortgage debt stands at 163% of total home equity - a record. Home prices have fallen a greater percentage at the low end then at the high end. The percentage of minority homeowners in distress far exceeds the number of white homeowners in distress, regardless of income level. Despite the large number of distressed properties, likelihood of stagnant sales prices for several years, more stringent lending standards, and high government debt, and even with much reduced immigration, there will be ample household generation to provide a robust housing market in future years. It’s just getting through the next few years that will most likely be painful.

May’s nationwide new construction single family starts fell 17.2% from April. Similarly, permits issued in May fell 9.9%. As predicted, residential construction doesn’t appear to be adding many jobs to the recovery. Builders are returning to smaller, less expensive, more energy efficient home designs. Changes in homebuilding practices might well effect builder’s return to profitability and reignite construction hiring. There must be some upside surprises developing amid all this gloomy news.

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. May's inventory of homes for sale (1846) rose 5% from April and is 4% greater than a year ago.  This rise in inventory did not occur last year and may indicate that some sellers who have been waiting to sell are now coming back into the market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 7.3 months, the same as in April. Since May pending sales have fallen 45%, it looks like turnover will slow in coming months. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with some higher price ranges having a turnover greater than 40 months. April's median price ($243,498) rose about 6% compared to April and was about 1% higher than a year ago.  The number of pending sales in May was down 32% compared to a year ago, and regional pending sales fell in several areas.  The links to regional market trends below will show both tables and graphs that further enhance the data reported below.  See Kitsap County graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a May median price of $457,500, about 18% lower than in April. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale price fell 12% from last month to $511,333 and is 19% lower than it was a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of closed sales is 63% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bainbridge pending sales in May rose 105% from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (210) is down 9% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.9 months, better than last month and much better than a year ago. Bainbridge Island is a buyer’s market.

See tables and graphs and tables at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $169,898 at the end of May, about 3% less than a year ago and about the same as last month. The more stable 3 month moving average median price was 7% higher than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago.  Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is 56% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is up 13% from last year. Recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (168) is 3% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.6 months (a small improvement from the 6.1 month turnover last month and better than the 10.8 month turnover a year ago). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyer’s market.

See tables and graphs and tables at http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market  

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $312,715 at the end of May, 4% lower than a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is down 32% compared to a year ago - this has been affected by the very low median price of last month.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales rose 350% from a year ago, while the number of pending sales is up 75% from a year ago. Recall again that our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (77) is up 24% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7.7 months (worse than the 6.4  month turnover reported last month, but much better than a year ago). Kingston is still a buyer's market.

See tables and graphs and tables at http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market  

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The May median sales price for Poulsbo was $290,087, down about 18% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $307,362, about 6% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 56% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago.  Poulsbo’s 3 month moving average of pending sales fell 18% from a year ago. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (103) is 15% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.7 months, improved from the 8.2 months reported last month. Poulsbo is still a buyer’s market.

See tables and graphs and tables at http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a May median price of about $245,000, 12% lower than a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale price was $266,333, about 1% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was up 17% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago.  The number of Silverdale pending sales in May is up 5% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (98) is 14% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7 months,  worse than the 5.9 month turnover reported last month. Silverdale is still a buyer's market.

See tables and graphs and tables at http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

Recent news from the National Association of Realtors is that December home sales were down 16% nationally compared to November, yet 15% higher than December 2008. You'll recall that November ended the initial first time homebuyer tax credit, so sales then were inflated by buyers rushing to meet the deadline. Even though the tax credit has been renewed and expanded, there isn't the same urgency on the part of buyers. With so many Americans having lost equity in their homes (we calculated 8949 homeowners underwater in Kitsap County - but many more have lost a sizable amount of equity), few are in a position to benefit from the new tax credit for move up buyers.

There is still a great deal of uncertainty in our economy, and there will be more trials over the next year. Congress (through the Stimulus bill), Treasury and the Federal Reserve (though a near zero Federal Funds target rate and the purchase of debt and mortgage backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) have pumped a huge amount of money (more than $200 billion by Treasury and about $1.25 trillion by the Fed) into our economy. As demand for goods and services increases, there will be a threat of inflation (too many dollars chasing too few goods). One uncertainty is whether the Federal Reserve will have the resolve to raise their target rate in spite of political pressure to keep rates low. Related to this, the Treasury has stopped purchasing mortgage backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the Federal Reserve has announced it will stop purchasing these securities at the end of March. Another uncertainty is how much interest rates will rise to attract private investors back into this market. While some experts expect mortgage rates to rise only a few tenths of a percent, others have predicted that rates will be 6% by year end. These uncertainties are playing a role in the doubts currently circulating about whether or not to confirm the nomination of Ben Bernanke to continue as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

There is also uncertainty about what will be done to alleviate the perception that some of our financial institutions are too big to fail. Despite being saved by the the taxpayers late last year, many of these institutions have profited and grown this year, now making the influence of the largest bank (actually bank holding companies) considerably greater than it was when markets failed in fall 2008. The administration has recently proposed curbs on the lending and investing activities of these big banks, and while it might appear that this was a reaction to the Democrats recent loss of a Senate seat in Massachusetts, the program, at least according to one source, has been in preparation and review for many months. Just a case of bad timing.

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. December's inventory of homes for sale fell by 25% from a year ago and was 10% lower than in November. The listing inventory fell sharply late last year and has never recovered this year, implying that there is a considerable shadow inventory of homes with sellers waiting for a better market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 6.0 months, somewhat better than November's 6.1 months, and considerably better that we've seen for the past year and a half. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with an inventory turnover as low as 4 months for the lower price ranges and as much as 25 months turnover for homes priced above $800,000. December's closed sale median price ($239,950) was about the same as in November and was 8% higher than a year ago (median price dipped very low in December 2008 before rebounding somewhat to near its current level).  The number of pending sales in December was up 38% from a year ago (recall that December 2008 was a very bad month for our economy) even though pending sales have fallen steeply the past 2 months (as the first time homebuyer tax credit deadline passed). Regional pending sales have tailed off after peaking in October.  The links to regional market trends below will show both tables and graphs that further enhance the data reported below.

See Kitsap County graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for an December median price of $505,000, about 3% higher than in November. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale price fell 1% from last month to $495,000 and is 5% lower than it was a year ago. Sales at the top of the market, while still pretty slow, did improve somewhat compared to previous months. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago. Note that prices tailed off at the end of last year so this parity is not unexpected. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of  closed sales is 50% higher than a year ago. Recall that sales were very weak at the end of 2008 and the number of closed sales at the end of last year was improved. The 3 month moving average number of pending sales in December rose 53% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (162) is down 16% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7 months, improved from the 11.7 month turnover rate of last month. Bainbridge Island is a buyers market.

See tables and graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market .

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $153,150 at the end of December, about 2% higher than a year ago and down 4% from last month. The more stable 3 month moving average was 22% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago. Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is up 13% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is up 13% from last year. Recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (138) is 25% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.1 months (better than the 6.1 last month and from 8.7 months a year ago). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyers market because of shadow inventory that has been pulled off unsold.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market  

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $299,000 at the end of December, 94% higher than a year ago - December 2008 was a terrible month for Kingston home sales. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations when one or two high priced homes sell.  The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is up 13% compared to a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales rose 175% from a year ago, while the number of pending sales is 100% higher than a year ago. Recall again that December 2008 had very low sales and that our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (62) is down 21% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 4.8 months (better than the 8.7 months last month, not to mention the 78 month turnover of last year). Our guess is that Kingston is still a buyer's market because of the shadow inventory.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market  

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The December median sales price for Poulsbo was $254,250, down about 30% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $282,709, about 18% lower than in December 2008. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 50% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago.  December pending sales were up 50% in Poulsbo. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (98) is 36% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.9 months, somewhat worse than the 4.2 months reported last month - but still very good. Poulsbo is probably still a buyers market because of the shadow inventory of homes pulled off the market in the past year without selling, but looks like it has improved recently.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a December median price of about $274,000. This median is down 4% percent from a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale prince in December of $275,417 was up about 5% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was 8% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago.  The number of Silverdale pending sales in December is up 44% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (62) is 25% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.2 months, better than the 5.7 months last month. Silverdale is looking now like a seller's market, but there appears to be a large shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market that will deter prices from rising.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

The headlines today are about November's 7.4% rise in the number of closed home sales nationally. This spike in sales was fueled by the expiring 1st time homebuyer tax credit - 51% of the sales were to first time buyers. However, we want to talk about the inventory of homes for sale. The National Association of Realtors reported that the national inventory of homes for sale is at a 44 month low. The inventory of homes for sale in Kitsap County has been very low this year compared to the last two years, as shown in this graph.

You'll see in the local area write-ups below that although the inventory turnover has fallen to 6 months or less in some areas, we continue to predict that we have a buyer's market because of shadow inventory. Recently an article in Housing Wire cited a report from First American Core Logic stating that nationally there are now 1.7 million homes in the shadow market as of September 2009, up from 1.1 million a year ago (about a 55% increase).

How many homes are there in the Kitsap County shadow market? The shadow market consists of bank owned properties not yet on the market, foreclosures in process and seriously delinquent loans, new high rise condos (not significant in our area), and homeowners waiting for a better market. If we make the assumption that the shadow market consists entirely of underwater or near underwater homeowners, we can come up with an approximate number for our county. According to Census information, there are 100,924 total housing units in Kitsap County, with about 63,029 owner occupied units. Of these, 47,105 have mortgages. We choose only to look at owner occupied units because the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) only applies to owner occupied units, and the mortgage modifications of this program are delaying the majority of foreclosures.

The number of homeowners with negative or nearly negative equity varies greatly by state, as shown in this article in Calculated Risk. In Washington State, the percentage of homeowners underwater or nearly underwater is about 19%, about in the middle nationally. So in Kitsap County there might be 8,949 owner occupied units underwater or nearly (within 5%) underwater. If nationally there are 10.7 million homes with negative equity plus 2.3 million with near negative equity (total 13 million), and the shadow inventory is 1.7 million, and the greatest number in the shadow inventory come from those with negative equity, we can approximate the shadow inventory in Kitsap County by using the ratio of national shadow inventory to national negative equity - about 13%. That would mean about 1,092 Kitsap homes could be in the shadow inventory. This calculation is inexact, but probably a reasonable order of magnitude.

Since there are currently only about 1500 homes listed for sale in Kitsap County, flooding our market with a thousand more units of shadow inventory might mean that there will be another dip in the housing market, prices again falling as a small pool of buyers purchase only the best values available. Some groups, like Radar Logic in a report on Housing Wire, assert that the banks are now controlling the rate at which foreclosures now come on the market so that there won't be a flood of new foreclosure inventory if a large number of loan modifications don't convert to permanent.

"Thanks to federal bailout money and a general improvement in their financial health, banks have been relieved of the urgent need to liquidate their assets. As a result, lenders and government entities like Fannie Mae and the FDIC have been able to curtail sales to raise prices and avoid recording losses on properties", according to the report.

Meanwhile an analysis from Deutsche Bank states that nationally prices will drop another 10-12% in the coming year as the governments policy actions will be no match for high unemployment, tight credit, and rising negative equity. Just to add a little confusion, there are conflicting reports about whether current prices are going up or down. The Case Shiller Index, which is yet to be released, has shown a modest rise recently. A Housing Wire article states that Global Insight shows a .2% rise in prices over the 3rd quarter, but warns against extrapolating on the trend. The same article noted that FHFA's index is rising. Now Calculated Risk has reported that October home prices are falling based on First American Core Logic's Loan Performance House Price Index.

Stay tuned - there are lots of conflicting statements and signals in our market right now.

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. July's inventory of homes for sale fell by 29% from a year ago and was slightly lower than in June. This is unusual and implies that some sellers may have decided to wait until they see a better market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 7.1 months, down from June's 8.5 months, and the best turnover we've seen since 2007. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with an inventory turnover under 6 months for homes under $400,000 and 3 to 10 times longer turnover for homes priced above $400,000. July's closed sale median price ($245,000) was up 2% from June and was down 8% percent compared to a year ago.  The number of pending sales in July was up 56% from a year ago and up 12% compared to June.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a month end median price of $624,250 at the end of July, down 28% from June. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale prices ($674,733) rose 4.1% from last month and is 16% higher than it was a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of  closed sales is 6% higher than a year ago. The number of pending sales in July rose 8% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 8% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (250) is down 17% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 10.5 months, improved from the 19.6 month turnover rate of last month . Bainbridge Island is a buyers market.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market_ .

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $169,900 at the end of July, about 12% lower than a year ago and down 12% from last month. The more stable 3 month moving average was 6% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year.  Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is up 12% from a year ago (compared to a Countywide rise of 10%). The number of month end Bremerton pending sales is up 39% from last year, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (183) rose 17% from last month and is 30% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 4.9 months (improved from 5.4 last month). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyers market because of shadow inventory that has been pulled off unsold, but the lower price ranges are definitely selling very well now.

http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market  

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $450,000 at the end of July, 22% higher than a year ago. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations when one or two high priced homes sell.  The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is up 7% compared to a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year.  The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales is 14% lower than a year ago, while the number of pending sales is 13% higher than a year ago. Recall our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The number of closed sales is up 10% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (68) is down 33% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 8.5 months (down from 10 months last month). Sales in North Kitsap still seem to be slower than farther south in the County. Kingston is a buyer's market.

http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market  

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The July median sales price for Poulsbo was $282,960, down about 17% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $309,320, about 8% lower than in July 2008. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 6% from a year ago. The number of closed sales is up 10% Countywide from a year ago.  July pending sales were down 19% in Poulsbo. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (116) is 30% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.4 months, a bit slower than the 5.3 months reported last month. Poulsbo is probably still a buyers market because of the shadow inventory of homes pulled off the market in the past year without selling, but looks like it has improved recently.

http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a July median price of about $308,000. This median is down 2% percent from a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale prince in July of $308,500 was up about 5% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is down 8% compared to a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was 19% higher than a year ago, compared to a rise in closed sales of 10% for the County as a whole. The number of Silverdale pending sales in July is up 120% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (81) is 43% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 3 months, improved from last month's rate of 4.9 months. Silverdale is looking now like a seller’s market, but there appears to be a large shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market that will deter prices from rising.

http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. June's inventory of homes for sale fell by 29% from a year ago and was slightly lower than in May. This is unusual and implies that some sellers may have decided to wait until they see a better market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 7.1 months, down from May's 8.5 months, and the best turnover we've seen since 2007. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with an inventory turnover under 6 months for homes under $400,000 and 3 to 10 times longer turnover for homes priced above $400,000. June's closed sale median price ($245,000) was up 2% from May and was down 8% percent compared to a year ago.  The number of pending sales in June was up 56% from a year ago and up 12% compared to May.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a month end median price of $869,950 at the end of June, up 64%% from May. This means that sale of some higher priced properties have closed, skewing the distribution of the median (or middle) sales price. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale prices ($648,317) rose 2.4% from last month but and is 8% higher than it was a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 10% over the past year. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of  closed sales is 6% lower than a year ago. The number of pending sales in June fell 4% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 3% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (255) is down 16% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 19.6 months, up from the 12.8 month turnover rate of last month - still very slow. Bainbridge Island is a strong buyers market.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market_.

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $193,500 at the end of June, about 4% lower than a year ago but up 10% from last month. This does not indicate rising prices, but instead a change in the distribution of sales to include more higher priced properties. The more stable 3 month moving average was 12% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 10% over the past year.  Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is down 9% from a year ago (compared to a Countywide drop of 3%). The number of month end Bremerton pending sales is up 41% from last year, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (157) fell 9% from last month and is 37% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.4 months (much improved from 10.8 last month). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyers market because of shadow inventory that has been pulled off unsold, but the lower price ranges are definitely selling better now.

http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $279,000 at the end of June, 16% lower than a year ago. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations when one or two high priced homes sell.  The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is up 7% compared to a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 10% over the past year.  The 3 month moving average number of closed sales is 20% lower than a year ago, while the number of pending sales is 13% lower than a year ago. Recall our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The number of closed sales is down 3% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (70) is down 37% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 10 months (down from 21 months last month). Sales in North Kitsap still seem to be slower than farther south in the County. Kingston is a buyer's market.

http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The June median sales price for Poulsbo was $290,000, down about 16% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $317,333, about 5% lower than in June 2008. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 10% over the past year. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo has fallen 11% from a year ago. The number of closed sales is down 10% Countywide from a year ago.  Unlike most other areas, June pending sales were up 211% in Poulsbo (2nd big month in a row), but recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (112) is 37% lower than a year ago and dropped 7% from last month. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.3 months, considerably improved from the 8 months last month. Poulsbo is probably still a buyers market because of the shadow inventory of homes pulled off the market in the past year without selling, but looks like it has improved recently.

http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a June median price of about $340,000 (this is a big jump from last month and indicates that a few higher end homes must have sold, skewing the price distribution. This median is up 37% percent from a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale prince in June of $294,167 was up about 9% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is down 3% compared to a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was 19% lower than a year ago, compared to a drop in closed sales of 10% for the County as a whole. The number of Silverdale pending sales in June is up 47% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (73) is 43% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 4.9 months, improved from last month's rate of 6 months. Silverdale is looking now like a neutral market, but there appears to be a large shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market.

http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market

We're working on the June 2009 County and Regional residential sales stats and graphs and will update soon. In short,

• The number of closed sales (249) was the best we've seen since September 2007
• Median price ($245,000) rose slightly overall, with wide swings compared to last month in several regions. Overall median price remains well below the levels of 2006 - 2008 after dropping late last year.
• Listing inventory (1758) in Kitsap County remained fairly level (very abnormal), and well below the levels of last year. Some areas are rising, others dropping precipitously.
• Pending sales, including new construction and short sales that will be significantly delayed in closing, continue at levels well above last year (372 versus 239). Because of the delays in some types of sales, it is difficult to assess whether these higher raw numbers translate to a recovering market.