Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. July's inventory of homes for sale (1944) rose 3.5% from June and is 6% larger than a year ago.  This rise in inventory did not occur last year and may indicate that some sellers who have been waiting to sell are now coming back into the market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 9.5 months, a big slowdown from June’s 7.1 months. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price. In July, there was only 1 sale among 152 Kitsap County properties priced greater than $800k, so turnover in the higher price ranges was very slow. July's median price ($264,250) rose about 11% compared to June and was also about 5% higher than a year ago.  This was primarily the result of a change in the price distribution of homes  sold, rather than an across the board increase in home prices. With expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, the number of sales of lower priced properties fell by a large percentage. Sales of mid priced homes was affected less, so the median (middle) price of the homes sold moved higher. The number of pending sales in July was down 20% compared to a year ago, but was up 15% compared to last month. You may recall that pending sales fell nearly 50% in May and have been rising again the past 2 months.  The links to regional market trends below will show both tables and graphs that further enhance the data reported. 

See Kitsap County graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a July median price of $529,500, about 19% lower than in June. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale price fell about 1.5% from last month to $547,333 and is 19% lower than it was a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 1% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of closed sales is 54% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 3% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bainbridge pending sales in July rose 29% from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (268) rose 3% from June and is up 6% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 12.2 months, slower then the 8.1 months in June and the 10.5 months of a year ago. Bainbridge Island is a buyer’s market.

See tables and graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $167,450 at the end of July, about 1% less than a year ago and about 1% less than last month. The more stable 3 month moving average median price ($168,949) was about 6% less than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 1% higher than it was a year ago.  Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is 12% lower than a year ago and 15% lower than last month. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 3% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is down 44% from last year. With expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, pending sales in Bremerton have fallen sharply. The number of Bremerton active listings (186) is 2% higher than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 13.3 months (much slower than the 6.5 month turnover last month and 4.9 month turnover a year ago). The Bremerton market is slowing down and is a buyer’s market.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market  

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $208,725 at the end of July, 54% lower than a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average ($253,480) of closed sale prices is down 28% compared to a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 1% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average of Kingston closed sales rose 39% from a year ago, while the number of pending sales is unchanged from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 3% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (73) is up 7% from a year ago and down 16% from last month. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 12.1 months (slower than the 9.7  month turnover reported last month and the 8.5 month turnover of a year ago). Kingston is still a buyer's market.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market 

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The July median sales price for Poulsbo was $317,750, up about 12% from a year ago and down about 11 % from last month. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $322,446, about 4% higher than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 1% higher than it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 2% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 3% Countywide from a year ago.  Poulsbo’s 3 month moving average of pending sales fell 41% from a year ago. The Poulsbo listing inventory (103) is 11% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 4.7 months, faster than the 6.4 months reported last month and better than most other areas in the County. Poulsbo is still a buyer’s market.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a July median price of about $383,500, 25% higher than a year ago. This rise is the result of a change in the price distribution of  homes sold - fewer low priced sales and more mid to high priced sales. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale price was $301,150, about 18% higher than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 1% higher than it was a year ago.   The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was down 30% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 3% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average of Silverdale pending sales in July fell 52% from a year ago. The number of active listings in Silverdale (109) is down 2% from last month and 35% higher than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 9.1 months,  slower than the 8.5 month turnover reported last month. Silverdale is still a buyer's market.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. May's inventory of homes for sale (1846) rose 5% from April and is 4% greater than a year ago.  This rise in inventory did not occur last year and may indicate that some sellers who have been waiting to sell are now coming back into the market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 7.3 months, the same as in April. Since May pending sales have fallen 45%, it looks like turnover will slow in coming months. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with some higher price ranges having a turnover greater than 40 months. April's median price ($243,498) rose about 6% compared to April and was about 1% higher than a year ago.  The number of pending sales in May was down 32% compared to a year ago, and regional pending sales fell in several areas.  The links to regional market trends below will show both tables and graphs that further enhance the data reported below.  See Kitsap County graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a May median price of $457,500, about 18% lower than in April. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale price fell 12% from last month to $511,333 and is 19% lower than it was a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of closed sales is 63% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bainbridge pending sales in May rose 105% from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (210) is down 9% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.9 months, better than last month and much better than a year ago. Bainbridge Island is a buyer’s market.

See tables and graphs and tables at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $169,898 at the end of May, about 3% less than a year ago and about the same as last month. The more stable 3 month moving average median price was 7% higher than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago.  Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is 56% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is up 13% from last year. Recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (168) is 3% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.6 months (a small improvement from the 6.1 month turnover last month and better than the 10.8 month turnover a year ago). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyer’s market.

See tables and graphs and tables at http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market  

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $312,715 at the end of May, 4% lower than a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is down 32% compared to a year ago - this has been affected by the very low median price of last month.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales rose 350% from a year ago, while the number of pending sales is up 75% from a year ago. Recall again that our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (77) is up 24% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7.7 months (worse than the 6.4  month turnover reported last month, but much better than a year ago). Kingston is still a buyer's market.

See tables and graphs and tables at http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market  

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The May median sales price for Poulsbo was $290,087, down about 18% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $307,362, about 6% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 56% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago.  Poulsbo’s 3 month moving average of pending sales fell 18% from a year ago. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (103) is 15% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.7 months, improved from the 8.2 months reported last month. Poulsbo is still a buyer’s market.

See tables and graphs and tables at http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a May median price of about $245,000, 12% lower than a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale price was $266,333, about 1% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was up 17% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago.  The number of Silverdale pending sales in May is up 5% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (98) is 14% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7 months,  worse than the 5.9 month turnover reported last month. Silverdale is still a buyer's market.

See tables and graphs and tables at http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. Kitsap County's residential inventory in January (1437 listings) is about 5% higher than December and down about 20% from a year ago. This is the first rise in the number of listings in some time, and may be evidence that we'll see a more typical seasonal listing curve, with then number of properties for sale rising into mid summer and falling off as the we get later into the year. We may at least see some of the shadow inventory become active again as foreclosures increase and sellers come back to test the market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 8.35 months, slower than December's 6.0 months.  Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with an inventory turnover as low as 6.5 months for the lower price ranges and four or more times that long for homes priced above $400,000. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales Countywide is up 57% compared to a year ago, up from plus 38% last month, but temper this with knowing that we were at the very bottom of our market a year ago. Closed sales were down 11% compared with December 2009. January's closed sale median price ($239,700) was almost the same as December, and is less than 1% higher than a year ago.  The number of pending sales in January was up 5% compared to a year ago.  Regional pending sales have tailed off after peaking in October 2009.  The links to regional market trends below will show both tables and graphs that further enhance the data reported below.

See Kitsap County graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a January median price of $553,500, about 10% higher than in December. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale price rose 4% from last month to $515,500 and is 4% higher than it was a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about 2% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of closed sales is 20% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of pending sales in December rose 31% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 57% Countywide from a year ago (when sales were very weak). The number of active listings on Bainbridge (166) is down 14% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 10.3 months, slower than the 7 month turnover rate of last month. Bainbridge Island is a buyers market.

See tables and graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market.

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $129,300 at the end of January, about 31% lower than a year ago and down 16% from last month. The more stable 3 month moving average was 22% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about 24% less than it was a year ago. Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is up 10% from a year ago, but for January, there were only 10 closed sales. This will make the inventory turnover (see below) look large. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 57% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is up 9% from last year. Recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (150) is 12% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 15 months (way slower than the 5.1 last month and from 10 months a year ago). While prices are way down the rate of sales fell off as well. We'll look to see if this trend continues or is just an isolated case last month. The Bremerton market is probably still a buyers market.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market  

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $299,000 at the end of January, 36% higher than a year ago. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations when one or two high priced homes sell.  The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is up 41% compared to a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about 2% lower than it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales rose 167% from a year ago, while the number of pending sales is unchanged from a year ago. Recall again that sales at the end of last year were very few and far between and that our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 57% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (59) is down 13% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 14.8 months (a sharp slowdown from the 4.7 months last month). Kingston is still a buyer's market.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market  

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The January median sales price for Poulsbo was $287,500, down about 6% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $277,709, about 17% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 2% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 67% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 57% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average of pending sales was up 44% in Poulsbo. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (80) is 46% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.2 months, a bit worse than the 5.9 months reported last month - but still very good. Poulsbo is probably still a buyers market because of the shadow inventory of homes pulled off the market in the past year without selling.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a January median price of about $230,000. This median is down 4% percent from a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale prince in December of $259,667was up about 2.5% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 2% lower than it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was 57% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 57% Countywide from a year ago.  The number of Silverdale pending sales in January is up 10% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (65) is 14% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7.2 months, slower than the 5.2 months last month. Silverdale is probably still a buyer's market because of the shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market that will deter prices from rising.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

Recent news from the National Association of Realtors is that December home sales were down 16% nationally compared to November, yet 15% higher than December 2008. You'll recall that November ended the initial first time homebuyer tax credit, so sales then were inflated by buyers rushing to meet the deadline. Even though the tax credit has been renewed and expanded, there isn't the same urgency on the part of buyers. With so many Americans having lost equity in their homes (we calculated 8949 homeowners underwater in Kitsap County - but many more have lost a sizable amount of equity), few are in a position to benefit from the new tax credit for move up buyers.

There is still a great deal of uncertainty in our economy, and there will be more trials over the next year. Congress (through the Stimulus bill), Treasury and the Federal Reserve (though a near zero Federal Funds target rate and the purchase of debt and mortgage backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) have pumped a huge amount of money (more than $200 billion by Treasury and about $1.25 trillion by the Fed) into our economy. As demand for goods and services increases, there will be a threat of inflation (too many dollars chasing too few goods). One uncertainty is whether the Federal Reserve will have the resolve to raise their target rate in spite of political pressure to keep rates low. Related to this, the Treasury has stopped purchasing mortgage backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the Federal Reserve has announced it will stop purchasing these securities at the end of March. Another uncertainty is how much interest rates will rise to attract private investors back into this market. While some experts expect mortgage rates to rise only a few tenths of a percent, others have predicted that rates will be 6% by year end. These uncertainties are playing a role in the doubts currently circulating about whether or not to confirm the nomination of Ben Bernanke to continue as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

There is also uncertainty about what will be done to alleviate the perception that some of our financial institutions are too big to fail. Despite being saved by the the taxpayers late last year, many of these institutions have profited and grown this year, now making the influence of the largest bank (actually bank holding companies) considerably greater than it was when markets failed in fall 2008. The administration has recently proposed curbs on the lending and investing activities of these big banks, and while it might appear that this was a reaction to the Democrats recent loss of a Senate seat in Massachusetts, the program, at least according to one source, has been in preparation and review for many months. Just a case of bad timing.

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. December's inventory of homes for sale fell by 25% from a year ago and was 10% lower than in November. The listing inventory fell sharply late last year and has never recovered this year, implying that there is a considerable shadow inventory of homes with sellers waiting for a better market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 6.0 months, somewhat better than November's 6.1 months, and considerably better that we've seen for the past year and a half. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with an inventory turnover as low as 4 months for the lower price ranges and as much as 25 months turnover for homes priced above $800,000. December's closed sale median price ($239,950) was about the same as in November and was 8% higher than a year ago (median price dipped very low in December 2008 before rebounding somewhat to near its current level).  The number of pending sales in December was up 38% from a year ago (recall that December 2008 was a very bad month for our economy) even though pending sales have fallen steeply the past 2 months (as the first time homebuyer tax credit deadline passed). Regional pending sales have tailed off after peaking in October.  The links to regional market trends below will show both tables and graphs that further enhance the data reported below.

See Kitsap County graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for an December median price of $505,000, about 3% higher than in November. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale price fell 1% from last month to $495,000 and is 5% lower than it was a year ago. Sales at the top of the market, while still pretty slow, did improve somewhat compared to previous months. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago. Note that prices tailed off at the end of last year so this parity is not unexpected. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of  closed sales is 50% higher than a year ago. Recall that sales were very weak at the end of 2008 and the number of closed sales at the end of last year was improved. The 3 month moving average number of pending sales in December rose 53% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (162) is down 16% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7 months, improved from the 11.7 month turnover rate of last month. Bainbridge Island is a buyers market.

See tables and graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market .

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $153,150 at the end of December, about 2% higher than a year ago and down 4% from last month. The more stable 3 month moving average was 22% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago. Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is up 13% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is up 13% from last year. Recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (138) is 25% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.1 months (better than the 6.1 last month and from 8.7 months a year ago). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyers market because of shadow inventory that has been pulled off unsold.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market  

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $299,000 at the end of December, 94% higher than a year ago - December 2008 was a terrible month for Kingston home sales. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations when one or two high priced homes sell.  The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is up 13% compared to a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales rose 175% from a year ago, while the number of pending sales is 100% higher than a year ago. Recall again that December 2008 had very low sales and that our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (62) is down 21% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 4.8 months (better than the 8.7 months last month, not to mention the 78 month turnover of last year). Our guess is that Kingston is still a buyer's market because of the shadow inventory.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market  

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The December median sales price for Poulsbo was $254,250, down about 30% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $282,709, about 18% lower than in December 2008. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 50% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago.  December pending sales were up 50% in Poulsbo. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (98) is 36% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.9 months, somewhat worse than the 4.2 months reported last month - but still very good. Poulsbo is probably still a buyers market because of the shadow inventory of homes pulled off the market in the past year without selling, but looks like it has improved recently.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a December median price of about $274,000. This median is down 4% percent from a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale prince in December of $275,417 was up about 5% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was 8% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago.  The number of Silverdale pending sales in December is up 44% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (62) is 25% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.2 months, better than the 5.7 months last month. Silverdale is looking now like a seller's market, but there appears to be a large shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market that will deter prices from rising.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

The headlines today are about November's 7.4% rise in the number of closed home sales nationally. This spike in sales was fueled by the expiring 1st time homebuyer tax credit - 51% of the sales were to first time buyers. However, we want to talk about the inventory of homes for sale. The National Association of Realtors reported that the national inventory of homes for sale is at a 44 month low. The inventory of homes for sale in Kitsap County has been very low this year compared to the last two years, as shown in this graph.

You'll see in the local area write-ups below that although the inventory turnover has fallen to 6 months or less in some areas, we continue to predict that we have a buyer's market because of shadow inventory. Recently an article in Housing Wire cited a report from First American Core Logic stating that nationally there are now 1.7 million homes in the shadow market as of September 2009, up from 1.1 million a year ago (about a 55% increase).

How many homes are there in the Kitsap County shadow market? The shadow market consists of bank owned properties not yet on the market, foreclosures in process and seriously delinquent loans, new high rise condos (not significant in our area), and homeowners waiting for a better market. If we make the assumption that the shadow market consists entirely of underwater or near underwater homeowners, we can come up with an approximate number for our county. According to Census information, there are 100,924 total housing units in Kitsap County, with about 63,029 owner occupied units. Of these, 47,105 have mortgages. We choose only to look at owner occupied units because the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) only applies to owner occupied units, and the mortgage modifications of this program are delaying the majority of foreclosures.

The number of homeowners with negative or nearly negative equity varies greatly by state, as shown in this article in Calculated Risk. In Washington State, the percentage of homeowners underwater or nearly underwater is about 19%, about in the middle nationally. So in Kitsap County there might be 8,949 owner occupied units underwater or nearly (within 5%) underwater. If nationally there are 10.7 million homes with negative equity plus 2.3 million with near negative equity (total 13 million), and the shadow inventory is 1.7 million, and the greatest number in the shadow inventory come from those with negative equity, we can approximate the shadow inventory in Kitsap County by using the ratio of national shadow inventory to national negative equity - about 13%. That would mean about 1,092 Kitsap homes could be in the shadow inventory. This calculation is inexact, but probably a reasonable order of magnitude.

Since there are currently only about 1500 homes listed for sale in Kitsap County, flooding our market with a thousand more units of shadow inventory might mean that there will be another dip in the housing market, prices again falling as a small pool of buyers purchase only the best values available. Some groups, like Radar Logic in a report on Housing Wire, assert that the banks are now controlling the rate at which foreclosures now come on the market so that there won't be a flood of new foreclosure inventory if a large number of loan modifications don't convert to permanent.

"Thanks to federal bailout money and a general improvement in their financial health, banks have been relieved of the urgent need to liquidate their assets. As a result, lenders and government entities like Fannie Mae and the FDIC have been able to curtail sales to raise prices and avoid recording losses on properties", according to the report.

Meanwhile an analysis from Deutsche Bank states that nationally prices will drop another 10-12% in the coming year as the governments policy actions will be no match for high unemployment, tight credit, and rising negative equity. Just to add a little confusion, there are conflicting reports about whether current prices are going up or down. The Case Shiller Index, which is yet to be released, has shown a modest rise recently. A Housing Wire article states that Global Insight shows a .2% rise in prices over the 3rd quarter, but warns against extrapolating on the trend. The same article noted that FHFA's index is rising. Now Calculated Risk has reported that October home prices are falling based on First American Core Logic's Loan Performance House Price Index.

Stay tuned - there are lots of conflicting statements and signals in our market right now.

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. September's inventory of homes for sale fell by 25% from a year ago and was 3% lower than in August. The listing inventory fell sharply late last year and has never recovered this year, implying that there is a considerable shadow inventory of homes with sellers waiting for a better market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 6.9 months, somewhat better than August's 7.4 months, and considerably better that we've seen for the past year and a half. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with an inventory turnover as low as 3 months for the lower price ranges and 120 months turnover for homes priced above $900,000. September's closed sale median price ($250,000) was up 2% from August and was down 5% percent compared to a year ago.  The number of pending sales in September was up 8% from a year ago and just about the same as in August. The links to regional market trends below will show both tables and graphs that further enhance the data reported below.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for an September median price of $592,000, about 11% lower than in August. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale price fell 17% from last month to $580,417 and is 2% lower than it was a year ago (recall that the median price can be misleading when the price distribution of sales is changing). Sales at the top of the market lagged - there was only 1 closed sale above $900k in Kitsap County last month. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year. Note that prices tailed off at the end of last year so we expect this gap to close in the coming months. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of  closed sales is 15% higher than a year ago - a testament to last months jump in sales. The 3 month moving average number of pending sales in September rose 30% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 14% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (242) is down 9% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 9.3 months, a jump improvement from the 13.9 month turnover rate of last month . Bainbridge Island is a buyers market.

See tables and graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market_

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $159,000 at the end of September, about 18% lower than a year ago and down 4% from last month. The more stable 3 month moving average was 13% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year.  Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is up 11% from a year ago. The number of closed sales is up 14% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is up 46% from last year, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (178) is 31% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.1 months (better than the 8.2 last month but definitely improved from 14.1 months a year ago). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyers market because of shadow inventory that has been pulled off unsold.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market 

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $309,500 at the end of September, 26% lower than a year ago. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations when one or two high priced homes sell.  The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is down 22% compared to a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year.  The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales fell 14% from a year ago, while the number of pending sales is 50% higher than a year ago. Recall our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The number of closed sales is up 14% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (59) is down 39% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 9.8 months (worse than the 13.6 months last month). Sales in North Kitsap still seem to be slower than farther south in the County. Kingston is a buyer's market.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The September median sales price for Poulsbo was $301,000, down about 8% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $291,987, about 11% lower than in September 2008. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 5% from a year ago. The number of closed sales is up 14% Countywide from a year ago.  September pending sales were down 7% in Poulsbo. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (98) is 36% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.2 months, somewhat worse than the 4.4 months reported last month - but still very good. Poulsbo is probably still a buyers market because of the shadow inventory of homes pulled off the market in the past year without selling, but looks like it has improved recently.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a September median price of about $275,000. This median is down 8% percent from a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale prince in September of $284,333 was down about 4% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is down 8% compared to a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was 67% higher than a year ago, compared to a rise in closed sales of 14% for the County as a whole. The number of Silverdale pending sales in September is up 7% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (93) is 23% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.5 months, same as last month and very good compared to many areas. Silverdale is looking now like a seller’s market, but there appears to be a large shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market that will deter prices from rising.

See tables and graphs at http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. August's inventory of homes for sale fell by 27% from a year ago and was 2% lower than in July. The listing inventory fell sharply late last year and has never recovered this year, implying that there is a considerable shadow inventory of homes with sellers waiting for a better market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 7.4 months, slightly worse than July's 7.1 months, but still considerably better that we've seen for the past year and a half. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with an inventory turnover as low as 3 months for the lower price ranges and 3 to 10 times longer turnover for homes priced above $400,000. August's closed sale median price ($245,000) was down 3% from July and was down 13% percent compared to a year ago.  The number of pending sales in August was up 24% from a year ago and just about the same as in July. The links to regional market trends below will show both tables and graphs that further enhance the data reported below.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for an August median price of $592,000, about 5% lower than in July. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale price rose 3% from last month to $695,400 and is 16% higher than it was a year ago (because of an exceptionally high median 2 months ago - recall that the median price can be misleading when the price distribution of sales is changing). The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 9% over the past year. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of  closed sales is 10% lower than a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of pending sales in August rose 21% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 12% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (251) is down 14% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 13.9 months, worse than the 10.5 month turnover rate of last month . Bainbridge Island is a buyers market.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market_.

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $165,000 at the end of August, about 10% lower than a year ago and down 3% from last month. The more stable 3 month moving average was 9% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 9% over the past year.  Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is up 11% from a year ago (compared to a Countywide rise of 12%). The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is up 46% from last year, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (178) is 31% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 8.2 months (significantly worse than the 4.9 last month but definitely improved from 13.6 months a year ago). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyers market because of shadow inventory that has been pulled off unsold.

http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market  

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $242,000 at the end of August, 51% lower than a year ago. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations when one or two high priced homes sell.  The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is down 18% compared to a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 9% over the past year.  The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales is the same as a year ago, while the number of pending sales is 25% higher than a year ago. Recall our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The number of closed sales is up 12% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (68) is down 35% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 13.6 months (worse than the 8.5 months last month). Sales in North Kitsap still seem to be slower than farther south in the County. Kingston is a buyer's market.

http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market  

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The August median sales price for Poulsbo was $282,960, down about 17% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $309,320, about 8% lower than in August 2008. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 9% over the past year. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 6% from a year ago. The number of closed sales is up 12% Countywide from a year ago.  August pending sales were down 19% in Poulsbo. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (111) is 35% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 4.4 months, better than the 6.4 months reported last month. Poulsbo is probably still a buyers market because of the shadow inventory of homes pulled off the market in the past year without selling, but it looks like it has improved recently.

http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a August median price of about $270,000. This median is down 2% percent from a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale prince in August of $308,500 was up about 9.4% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is down 9% compared to a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was 36% higher than a year ago, compared to a rise in closed sales of 12% for the County as a whole. The number of Silverdale pending sales in August is up 33% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (88) is 34% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.5 months, worse than last month's rate of 3 months but still very good compared to many areas. Silverdale is looking now like a seller's market, but there appears to be a large shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market that will deter prices from rising.

http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

Closed sales this year are 4% behind last year (6% behind last month), pending sales are running 27% ahead (27% ahead last month). The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 7.4 months, down from July's 6.4 months but still pretty good compared to earlier in the year and in 2008. In July, there were 284 closed sales and 346 pending sales. In August there were 243 closed sales and 348 pending sales. Shown below is a graph of month-by-month pending sales vs closed sales. 

A typical pending sale should close within 60 days, so we should see the closed sales lagging pending sales by about 2 months. However, in our situation the closed sales level has not reached the pending sales level for 6 months, so something else is up. Tighter lending standards, delays in approving short sale offers, and sellers and bank owned properties with little room to give have made it more difficult for Realtors to close sales. Shown below are graphs of inventory and inventory turnover for Kitsap County in 2007-09. TThe inventory turnover also varies significantly by price range, with higher priced homes selling more slowly than lower priced homes. See the graph below for a better perspective - note that this month’s graph shows that while turnover is still very fast below $200k, it actually got worse in the $200 to 300k range. However, in the higher price ranges it is definitely improving even though it is still slow. Every seller is in a price war and beauty contest at the same time. If your price is not best among comparable properties, the chance of sale is very small. Below is a historical depiction of the changes in the ratio of listings to closed sales.

Listing Inventory

Kitsap County's residential inventory in August (1793 listings) is about 2% lower than July and down about 27% from a year ago. This trend is counter to most years and suggests, at least at this point, that a portion of last year's sellers may be waiting for conditions to improve.  In part inventory has been held down artificially by the accounting for short sales, where properties with offers still awaiting bank approval are shifted to pending status even though many of these properties are still open to receive other offers.

Kitsap Listing Inventory

Pending and Closed Sales

The number of pending sales in August was up 24% compared to a year ago and about the same as July. The statistics for pending sales (compared to August pending sales last year) varied for different parts of the County. Below is a messy graph showing the 3 month moving average of pending sales for different parts of the County. Note the improvement in Bainbridge Island and Poulsbo, where the median home prices are higher, while areas like Bremerton appear to have leveled off. Also the strong rise in Port Orchard stood out.

The 3 month moving average number of closed sales Countywide is up 12% compared to a year ago, improved from plus 10% last month.

Median Sales Price
The median price in Kitsap County has been pretty steady this year, and is up slightly from the beginning of the year. August's median price ($245,000) was down 2.6% from July (see graph of 3 month moving average below), and is about 13% lower than a year ago. This low median price coupled with historically low interest rates (but higher than earlier this year) has maintained good affordability. Conventional mortgage rates have been holding fairly steady. Jumbo loans are becoming more accessible - they are offered at about .8 to .9% higher than the 30 yr fixed rate conventional.  With passage of the President's Stimulus Program, the conventional, VA, and FHA loan limits were restored to $475,000 in Kitsap County, which should give a lift to sales of higher priced homes. We have reworked our median price graphs to show a 3 month moving average of prices, which will better show trends and reduce the month-to-month fluctuations.

Kitsap Median List Price

The August median list price fell from $339,250 to $337,500, continuing the downward trend of last month. This market is in transition, with the percentage of sales in the upper price ranges still depressed compared to the past several years and what could be a large number of listings withdrawn into a shadow inventory that could return to the market if prices improve.

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. July's inventory of homes for sale fell by 29% from a year ago and was slightly lower than in June. This is unusual and implies that some sellers may have decided to wait until they see a better market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 7.1 months, down from June's 8.5 months, and the best turnover we've seen since 2007. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with an inventory turnover under 6 months for homes under $400,000 and 3 to 10 times longer turnover for homes priced above $400,000. July's closed sale median price ($245,000) was up 2% from June and was down 8% percent compared to a year ago.  The number of pending sales in July was up 56% from a year ago and up 12% compared to June.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a month end median price of $624,250 at the end of July, down 28% from June. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale prices ($674,733) rose 4.1% from last month and is 16% higher than it was a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of  closed sales is 6% higher than a year ago. The number of pending sales in July rose 8% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 8% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (250) is down 17% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 10.5 months, improved from the 19.6 month turnover rate of last month . Bainbridge Island is a buyers market.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market_ .

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $169,900 at the end of July, about 12% lower than a year ago and down 12% from last month. The more stable 3 month moving average was 6% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year.  Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is up 12% from a year ago (compared to a Countywide rise of 10%). The number of month end Bremerton pending sales is up 39% from last year, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (183) rose 17% from last month and is 30% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 4.9 months (improved from 5.4 last month). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyers market because of shadow inventory that has been pulled off unsold, but the lower price ranges are definitely selling very well now.

http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market  

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $450,000 at the end of July, 22% higher than a year ago. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations when one or two high priced homes sell.  The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is up 7% compared to a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year.  The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales is 14% lower than a year ago, while the number of pending sales is 13% higher than a year ago. Recall our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The number of closed sales is up 10% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (68) is down 33% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 8.5 months (down from 10 months last month). Sales in North Kitsap still seem to be slower than farther south in the County. Kingston is a buyer's market.

http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market  

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The July median sales price for Poulsbo was $282,960, down about 17% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $309,320, about 8% lower than in July 2008. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 6% from a year ago. The number of closed sales is up 10% Countywide from a year ago.  July pending sales were down 19% in Poulsbo. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (116) is 30% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.4 months, a bit slower than the 5.3 months reported last month. Poulsbo is probably still a buyers market because of the shadow inventory of homes pulled off the market in the past year without selling, but looks like it has improved recently.

http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a July median price of about $308,000. This median is down 2% percent from a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale prince in July of $308,500 was up about 5% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is down 8% compared to a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was 19% higher than a year ago, compared to a rise in closed sales of 10% for the County as a whole. The number of Silverdale pending sales in July is up 120% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (81) is 43% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 3 months, improved from last month's rate of 4.9 months. Silverdale is looking now like a seller’s market, but there appears to be a large shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market that will deter prices from rising.

http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

This month we’ve had everything, a surprise rise in interest rates based on inflation fears, record deflation, a 17% rise in housing starts, proposed historic financial regulatory overhaul. We only scratch the surface. How about that text messaging championship? Prowse and Company has completely renamed and redesigned our website http://www.prowserealestate.com, adding new displays and a new and better integrated home search.

Our local real estate market appears to be healing - not that this means home prices will start rising soon.

Total listings on the market by month for various Kitsap communities

Number of Closed Sales each month for various Kitsap communities

Variations in Median Price Month by Month for Closed Sales in various Kitsap communities

This posting at Calculated Risk applies to our market. Southern California sales (number of closed sales) have risen for the 11th consecutive month. This month was the first since 2007 where year-over-year median sales price increased. The article explains that this doesn't show the home prices to be rising, but rather the mix of sales has shifted to fewer low end sales and more mid to high priced sales, making it look as if the median (middle) price among sold homes is rising. More mid and high end sales are probably occurring because owners of these homes are more aggressively dropping their prices. Low interest rates and better availability of jumbo mortgages are also a factor.

You can see this same effect in the median price graphs for Bainbridge Island and Poulsbo.

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. May's inventory of homes for sale fell by 30% from a year ago and was about the same as in April. This is unusual and implies that some sellers may have decided to wait until we see a better market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 8.5 months, down from April's 9.1 months, and the best turnover we've seen since 2007. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with an inventory turnover closer to 6 months for homes under $400,000 and 2 to 6 times longer turnover for homes priced above $400,000. May's closed sale median price ($240,000) was the same as April and was down 10% percent compared to a year ago.  The number of pending sales in May was up 38% from a year ago and fell 8% compared to April.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a month end median price of $530,000 at the end of May, a drop of 3% from April. However, the distribution of buyers has changed as more properties in the higher price ranges are now selling. There are several factors - low interest rates, anxious sellers, and a slowly reviving market for jumbo loans all must be contributing to some extent. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale prices ($633,333) rose 4% from last month but and is 2% higher than it was a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 11% over the past year. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of  closed sales is the same as a year ago. The number of pending sales in May fell 14% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 11% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (243) is down 22% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 12.8 months, down from the 15 month turnover rate of last month - improving but still very slow. Bainbridge Island is a strong buyers market.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market.

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $175,450 at the end of May, about 13% lower than a year ago but up 27% from last month. The more stable 3 month moving average was 16% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 11% over the past year.  Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is down 10% from a year ago (compared to a Countywide drop of 11%). The number of month end Bremerton pending sales is up 31% from last year, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (173) rose 3% from last month but is 31% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 10.8 months (up from 9.8 last month). The Bremerton market is still a buyers market, the lower price ranges are definitely selling better now.

See graphs at http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market  

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $325,000 at the end of May, 14% higher than a year ago. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations when one or two high priced homes sell.  The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is up 5% compared to a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 11% over the past year.  The 3 month moving average number of closed sales is 60% lower than a year ago, while the number of pending sales is 83% higher than a year ago. Recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of closed sales is down 11% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (62) is down 40% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 21 months (down from 33 months last month). Sales in North Kitsap seem to be slower than farther south in the County. Kingston is a buyer's market.

See graphs at http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market  

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The May median sales price for Poulsbo was $355,000, up about 9% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $328,333, about 2% lower than in May 2008. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 11% over the past year. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo has fallen 22% from a year ago. The number of closed sales is down 11% Countywide from a year ago.  Unlike most other areas, May pending sales were up 121% in Poulsbo, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The Poulsbo listing inventory (121) is 31% lower than a year ago and dropped 14% from last month. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 8 months, worse than the 12.8 months last month. Poulsbo is still a buyers market, but looks like it has improved recently.

See graphs at http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a May median price of about $277,500, down 12% percent from a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale prince in May of $268,500 was down about 6% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is down 11% compared to a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was 8% lower than a year ago, compared to a drop in closed sales of 11% for the County as a whole. The number of Silverdale pending sales in May is up 39% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (86) is 39% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6 months, improved from last month's rate of 7.5 months. Silverdale is looking now like a neutral market, but there appears to be a large shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market.

See graphs at http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market  

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Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. March's inventory of homes for sale fell by 23% from a year ago and was slightly less than in February. This is unusual and implies that some sellers may have decided to wait until we see a better market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 9.9 months, down from February's 13.1 months, and the best turnover we’ve seen since 2007, except for a brief spike in October 2008. March’s closed sale median price ($244,750) rose about 8.5% from February and was down 11% percent compared to a year ago.  The number of pending sales in March was up 8% from a year ago and up 13% compared to February.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
The Bainbridge real estate market has come to life. Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a month end median price of $825,000 at the end of March, 18% higher than a year ago, and up 81% from February! You can’t read too much into the apparent price rise - overall we think prices are still going down. However, the distribution of buyers has changed as properties in the higher price ranges are now selling. There are several factors - low interest rates, anxious sellers, and a slowly reviving market for jumbo loans all must be contributing to some extent. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale prices ($609,667) has rose 28% from last month but fell 7% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 15% over the past year. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island’s number of  closed sales has fallen 8% from a year ago. Pending sales in March were up 16%. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 21% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (219) is down 13% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 15.6 months, down from the 22.4 month turnover rate of last month. Don’t be mislead - this is still a very slow market.  Bainbridge Island is a strong buyers market.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market.

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $137,500 at the end of March, about 18% lower than a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average was 4% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 15% over the past year.  Bremerton’s 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is down 5% from a year ago (compared to a Countywide drop of 21%). The number of month end Bremerton pending sales is up 4% from last year. The number of Bremerton active listings (158) has rose 3% from last month but is 37% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7.9 months (down from 9 last month), which reflects the greater percentage of lower priced homes that are selling. The Bremerton market is still a buyers market.

See graphs at http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market.

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $332,500 at the end of March, 17% less than a year ago. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations.  However, the 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is down 19% compared to a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 15% over the past year. The month end number of pending sales is 43% less than a year ago. The number of closed sales is down 21% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (72) is down 23% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 36 months (up from 13 months last month). Sales in North Kitsap seem to be slower than farther south in the County. Kingston is a buyer's market.

See graphs at http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market.  

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The March median sales price for Poulsbo was $323,000, down about 8% from a year ago and up 55% from February. The three month moving average closed sale price was $279,000, about 19% lower than in March 2008. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 15% over the past year. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo has fallen 45% from a year ago.  March pending sales were up 18% in Poulsbo. The Poulsbo listing inventory (141) is 12% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 8.8 months, improved from 30 months last month. Sales have picked up in Poulsbo, but it’s still a buyers market.

See graphs at http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market.  

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a March median price of about $263,000, down 11% percent from a year ago. Silverdale’s 3 month moving average median closed sale prince in March of $252,833 was down about 27% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 15% over the past year. The 3 month moving average for Silverdale’s number of closed sales was 20% lower than a year ago, compared to a drop in closed sales of 21% for the County as a whole. The number of Silverdale pending sales in March is up 12% from a year ago. The number of active listings in Silverdale (92) is 31% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 9.2 months, up from last month’s rate of 6.5 months. Silverdale is still a buyer’s market.

See graphs at http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market.  

We post this at the end of each month to archive market information from our market trends page.

Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. January's inventory of homes for sale fell by 14% from a year ago and was slightly less than in December. Based on the slow inventory turnover rates, listing inventory is still well above normal and should build up again as we go into spring. January’s closed sale median price ($234,950) was up 6% from December and down 16% percent compared to a year ago.  Considering the low interest rates, real estate is more affordable now than at any time in the past 5 or 6 years. The number of pending sales in January was up 12% from a year ago and up 69% compared to December.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/local_market_trends.

Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a month end median price of $549,000 at the end of January, a drop of 2.6% from a year ago. The three month moving average of closed sale prices ($494.667) has dropped 20% from a year ago. This substantial drop in median price occurred not only because sellers lowered their price, but also because the distribution of likely buyers has changed. Higher interest rates and continued inability to sell jumbo loans (exceeding $417,000 - but the limit just went back up to $475,000 a week ago) are contributing to this change. While the big banks are advertising a large interest rate premium for jumbo loans (Wells Fargo for instance offers 6.778%), local banks and credit unions are willing to make these loans for far less (for example, Washington Federal Savings advertises 5.75% for 30 yr fixed rate up to $600k). Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 12% over the past year. The 3 month moving average of Bainbridge closed sales is the same as a year ago, and pending sales in January were up 72% - encouraging!  The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 28% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (194) is down 10% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 17.6 months, up from the 14.8 month turnover rate of last month. Look for a better result next month.  Bainbridge Island is a strong buyers market.

See graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market_.

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $187,500 at the end of January, about 8% lower than a year ago. The January 3 month moving average was 7% higher than a year ago - yes it appears that median prices have been going up in Bremerton.  Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 12% over the past year.  The number of Bremerton 3 month moving average closed sales is down 20% from a year ago (compared to a Countywide drop of 28%). The number of month end Bremerton pending sales is up 4% from last year. The number of Bremerton active listings (170) has fallen 16% from last month and 24% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 10 months, which reflects the greater percentage of lower priced homes that are selling. The Bremerton market is still a buyers market.

See graphs at http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $213,500 at the end of January, down about 46% from a year ago, but don’t worry - the low sales volume can produce large fluctuations.  However, the 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is down 51% compared to a year ago - only the low end homes are getting offers.  Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 12% over the past year. The month end number of pending sales is the same as a year ago, but the median price is down 43%. The number of closed sales is down 28% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (68) is down 11% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 13.6 months. Kingston is a buyer's market.

See graphs at http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market

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Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. The snapshot of each individual market is posted earlier in the month on that locality's market trends page along with graphs showing recent trends. This summary page provides an archive you can reference in future months.
 
December's inventory of homes for sale fell by 4% from November and is in seasonal decline. Based on the slow inventory turnover rates, listing inventory is still well above normal. Median year-to-date closed sale prices were down about 1% in December compared to November and were down 9% percent compared to a year ago. The median price for December sales is down 2% from a year ago. The number of pending sales in December was down 25% from a year ago.
 
Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a year-to-date median price of $589,000 at the end of December, a drop of 13.4% from a year ago. The closed sale median price in December ($427,500) was down about 29% from a last year. This substantial drop in median price occurred not only because sellers lowered their price, but also because the distribution of likely buyers has changed. Higher interest rates and continued inability to sell jumbo loans (exceeding $417,000) are contributing to this change. While the big banks are advertising a large interest rate premium for jumbo loans (for example, 30 yr fixed rate jumbo at Wells Fargo is 7.875%), local banks and credit unions are willing to make these loans for far less (for example, Washington Federal Savings advertises 5.75% for 30 yr fixed rate up to $600k). Kitsap County YTD median price has fallen 9% over the past year. The YTD number of Bainbridge closed sales is down 43% from a year ago, and the YTD number of pending sales is down 35%. These numbers have improved slightly in the past couple months. The number of closed sales is down 25% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (193) is up 6% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 14.8 months, up from the 10.8 month turnover rate of last month. Bainbridge Island is a strong buyers market. See current graphs.

Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a year-to-date median price of $185,000 at the end of December, about 13% lower than a year ago. The December median closed sale price ($150,000) was 31% lower than the median for last month and 12% lower than a year ago. Kitsap County year-to-date median price has fallen 9% over the past year. The number of Bremerton year-to-date closed sales is down 29% from a year ago (compared to a Countywide drop of 25%). The number of year-to-date Bremerton pending sales is down 20% from last year. The number of Bremerton active listings (203) has fallen 10% from last month and 17% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 8.7 months, which reflects the greater percentage of lower priced homes that are selling. The Bremerton market is still a buyers market. See current graphs.

North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a year-to-date median price of about $362,500 at the end of December, up about 1.5% from a year ago. However, the December median for Kingston was only $154,500 (on only one sale), reflecting the trend that homes in the lower price ranges are moving better than higher priced homes. Kingston prices fluctuate more than the other markets because of the lower listing and sales volume. Kitsap County year-to-date median price has fallen 9% over the past year. The year-to-date number of closed sales in Kingston is down 29% from a year ago, and the year-to-date number of pending sales is down 32%. The number of closed sales is down 25% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (78) is down 4% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 78 months. Kingston is a buyer's market. See current graphs.

Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The year-to-date median sales price for Poulsbo at the end of December was $334,900, down about 6% from a year ago. For Poulsbo’s December closed sales, the median sale price was $362,000, about 8.1% lower than in December 2007. Kitsap County YTD median price has fallen 9% over the past year. The number of year-to-date closed sales in Poulsbo has fallen 9.5% from a year ago, and the number of YTD pending sales is down by 26%. The large difference in Poulsbo’s pending versus closed sales stats occurred because new construction sales previously pending during the months of construction have now closed. Year-to-date closed sales for Kitsap County are down 25% compared to last year. That portion of currently pending sales coming from new construction presales is 8 of 13. The Poulsbo listing inventory (142) is 20% higher than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 36 months, up from 11.8 months last month. See current graphs.

Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a year-to-date median price of about $288,500 at the end of December, down 9 percent from a year ago. Silverdale’s December median closed sale price of $286,200 was about 8% less than a year ago. Kitsap County YTD median price has fallen 9% over the past year. The number of Silverdale year-to-date closed sales was down 37% from a year ago, compared to a drop in closed sales of 25% for the County as a whole. The number of pending sales year-to-date is down 38% from a year ago. The number of active listings in Silverdale (83) is 18% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 10.4 months, slightly less than last month’s rate of 10.9 months. See current graphs.

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